AvePoint to Report Q4 Earnings: What's in the Cards for the Stock?

AvePoint AVPT is scheduled to report fourth-quarter 2025 results on Feb. 26.

AVPT expects fourth-quarter 2025 total revenues between $110 million and $112 million, representing year-over-year growth of 23-26%. On a constant currency basis, the company anticipates growth of 20-23%.

The company expects non-GAAP operating income of $21 million to $22 million for the fourth quarter of 2025.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for fourth-quarter 2025 revenues is pegged at $111.11 million, suggesting 24.59% growth over the year-ago quarter’s reported figure.

AvePoint, Inc. Price and EPS Surprise

AvePoint, Inc. price-eps-surprise | AvePoint, Inc. Quote

The consensus mark for fourth-quarter 2025 earnings is pinned at 9 cents per share, unchanged over the past 30 days, indicating 325% year-over-year growth.

AVPT expects 2025 total revenues between $414.8 million and $416.8 million, representing year-over-year growth of 25.5-26.1%. On a constant currency basis, the company anticipates growth of 23.5% to 24.1%.

The company expects non-GAAP operating income of $77.3-$78.3 million or a non-GAAP operating margin of 18.6% to 18.8% for 2025.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for 2025 revenues is pegged at $415.92 million, suggesting 25.85% growth over the year-ago quarter figure.

The consensus mark for 2025 earnings is pinned at 33 cents per share, unchanged over the past 30 days, indicating 22.22% year-over-year growth.

Over the trailing four quarters, the company’s earnings beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate twice, were in line in one quarter and missed in the remaining one, the average negative surprise being 25.95%.

Let us see how things are likely to have shaped up for the upcoming announcement.

Factors Likely to Shape AVPT’s Q4 Performance

AvePoint is expected to have gained in the fourth quarter of 2025 from strong SaaS growth, which registered 38% year-over-year growth in the third quarter. SaaS represented 77% of total third-quarter revenues, which is the company’s highest-ever quarterly mix compared with 69% a year ago, continuing AvePoint’s shift toward recurring cloud-based solutions.

Management had factored U.S. government shutdown uncertainty into Q4 expectations and, instead of raising, maintained ARR guidance despite upbeat Q3 results. ARR is more sensitive to deal timing, mainly for large enterprises and public sector deals.

The company added a record 41 new $100K+ ARR customers, totaling 762 customers at the end of the third quarter. Management expressed satisfaction that larger customers once again delivered higher growth rates in the quarters, reflecting the company’s success in selling its platform to global enterprises. This momentum is expected to have continued in the fourth quarter. 

AVPT registered gross retention rate of 88% and the FX-adjusted net retention rate of 110% for the third quarter of 2025. While the company was pleased with the improvements in the retention rate from 2023, it has adopted a cautious approach, as these metrics can fluctuate from quarter to quarter. It will continue to invest to attain the long-term targets of 90% and 115% for gross retention rate and net retention rates respectively.

The performance of AvePoint in the fourth quarter of 2025 is likely to have been affected by the ongoing U.S. federal government shutdown, which could have delayed deal closures in Q4, along with the public sector weakness and churn.

What Our Model Says About AVPT

Our proven model does not conclusively predict an earnings beat for AvePoint this time around. According to the Zacks model, the combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) increases the odds of an earnings beat. That’s not the case here.

AVPT has an Earnings ESP of 0.00% and a Zacks Rank #4 (Sell) at present. You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they are reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.

Stocks to Consider

Here are some companies worth considering, as our model shows that these have the right combination of elements to beat earnings in their upcoming releases:

Micron Technology MU currently has an Earnings ESP of +3.06% and a Zacks Rank #1. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.

Micron Technology shares have gained 351.6% in the past 12 months. MU is scheduled to release second-quarter 2026 results on March 19.

MongoDB MDB has an Earnings ESP of +0.05% and a Zacks Rank of #1 at present. 

MongoDB shares have returned 17.9% in the past 12 months. MDB is scheduled to release its fourth-quarter 2026 results on March 2.

Credo Technology Group CRDO shares have an Earnings ESP of +3.54% and a Zacks Rank #1.

Credo Technology Group shares have gained 117.8% in the past 12 months. CRDO is set to report its third-quarter fiscal 2026 results on March 2.
 

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This article originally published on Zacks Investment Research (zacks.com).

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