Mosaic's Q4 Earnings and Revenues Miss Estimates on Weak Volumes

The Mosaic Company MOS reported a loss of $1.64 per share for the fourth quarter of 2025. This compares unfavorably with earnings of 53 cents per share in the year-ago quarter.

Barring one-time items, adjusted earnings per share were 22 cents, down from 45 cents a year ago. It lagged the Zacks Consensus Estimate of 48 cents.

Net sales rose nearly 6% year over year to $2,973.7 million in the quarter. The metric missed the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $3,206.8 million. 

The Mosaic Company Price, Consensus and EPS Surprise

MOS’ Segment Highlights

Net sales in the Potash segment were $0.7 billion in the reported quarter, up around 17% from the prior-year quarter. Sales volume totaled 2.2 million tons, remaining flat year over year. The figure missed our estimate of 2.6 million tons. The segment’s gross margin rose to $115 per ton from $55 per ton in the year-ago quarter. The average MOP selling price increased to $264 per ton from $199 per ton. 

The Phosphate division’s net sales were $1 billion, down from $1.2 billion in the year-ago quarter. Sales volume in the segment totaled 1.3 million tons, down from 1.6 million tons last year. The figure lagged our estimate of 1.9 million tons. The gross margin in the quarter was $17 per ton, down from $85 per ton. The average DAP selling price rose to $686 per ton from $593 per ton a year ago. 

Net sales in the Mosaic Fertilizantes segment were $1.1 billion in the quarter, remaining flat year over year. Sales volume in the quarter was 2.1 million tons, down from 2.2 million tons. The figure lagged our estimate of 3.2 million tons. The gross margin in the quarter was $10 per ton, down from $46 per ton in the prior-year quarter. 

MOS’ Financials

At the end of the quarter, Mosaic had cash and cash equivalents of $276.6 million, up 1.4% from the prior-year quarter. Long-term debt was $4,250.9 million, up around 28% year over year. 

Net cash used in operating activities was $56.1 million in the reported quarter. 

MOS’ Outlook

Mosaic expects potash sales volumes for the first quarter of 2026 to be between 2 million tons and 2.2 million tons, with realized mine gate MOP prices projected in the range of $255-$275 per ton.

Phosphate sales volumes are forecast to be 1.7-1.9 million tons for the first quarter. DAP prices on an FOB basis are expected to be in the band of $640-$670 per ton. 

Mosaic Fertilizantes sales volumes for the first quarter of 2026 are projected to be below the prior-year quarter. 

For full-year 2026, the company expects phosphate production volumes at or above 7 million tons, while potash production is projected at roughly 9 million tons.  

MOS’ Price Performance

Mosaic’s shares have gained 10.2% in the past year compared with the Zacks Fertilizers industry’s 19.7% rise. 

MOS’s Zacks Rank & Key Picks

MOS currently carries a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold).

Better-ranked stocks worth a look in the basic materials space include Sociedad Quimica y Minera de Chile S.A. SQM, Orla Mining Ltd. ORLA, and Methanex Corporation MEOH 

Sociedad is slated to report fourth-quarter results on Feb. 27. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for earnings is pegged at 75 cents per share, indicating a 79% year-over-year growth. Sociedad sports a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy) at present. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.

Orla Mining is scheduled to report fourth-quarter results on March 19. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for ORLA’s fourth-quarter earnings is pegged at 36 cents per share, indicating year-over-year growth of 414.3%. ORLA currently carries a Zacks Rank #1.

Methanex is expected to report fourth-quarter results on March 5. MEOH carries a Zacks Rank #2 (Buy) at present. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for MEOH’s fourth-quarter earnings is pegged at 81 cents, indicating a 35% year-over-year decline.

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