Why MGP Ingredients (MGPI) Stock Is Trading Lower Today

What Happened?

Shares of food and beverage supplier MGP Ingredients (NASDAQ:MGPI) fell 21% in the morning session after the company reported fourth-quarter results that beat analyst estimates but provided a disappointing financial outlook for 2026. 

While its quarterly revenue of $138.3 million and adjusted earnings per share of $0.63 both came in ahead of Wall Street's expectations, investors focused on the weak forecast for the upcoming year. Management's guidance for 2026 fell short, with the projected full-year revenue midpoint of $490 million coming in 4.1% below consensus. The outlook for profitability was even weaker, as the adjusted earnings per share forecast of $1.65 at the midpoint missed analyst estimates by a significant 32.4%. Adding to the negative sentiment, reported sales for the fourth quarter declined by 23.5% year over year, highlighting underlying demand challenges.

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What Is The Market Telling Us

MGP Ingredients’s shares are not very volatile and have only had 7 moves greater than 5% over the last year. Moves this big are rare for MGP Ingredients and indicate this news significantly impacted the market’s perception of the business.

The biggest move we wrote about over the last year was 4 months ago when the stock gained 8.5% on the news that the company reported third-quarter results that surpassed Wall Street's expectations for both earnings and revenue, and raised its full-year profit forecast. 

Adjusted earnings per share came in at $0.85, which was well ahead of analyst estimates of $0.60. Revenue for the quarter was $130.9 million, also beating consensus forecasts of $128.2 million. However, the results showed a decline from the same period in the previous year, with consolidated sales decreasing by 18.9% and adjusted earnings per share falling from $1.29. Despite these year-over-year drops, investors focused on the better-than-expected performance and the company's improved financial outlook. MGP Ingredients updated its full-year guidance, increasing its forecast for adjusted earnings per share to a midpoint of $2.68, signaling confidence in its future profitability.

MGP Ingredients is down 15.1% since the beginning of the year, and at $20.46 per share, it is trading 40.2% below its 52-week high of $34.23 from March 2025. Investors who bought $1,000 worth of MGP Ingredients’s shares 5 years ago would now be looking at an investment worth $307.92.

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