The S&P 500 closed Wednesday at 6,946.13 — a clean 0.81% gain and the second green day in a row. Then Nvidia Corp (NASDAQ:NVDA) reported its fourth-quarter results. The stock popped 3.5% after hours. Then it faded. By the time most traders called it a day, Nvidia was below $200 again.
That sell-the-news wobble is likely the reason a bet on Polymarket opened at 60% “Down,” 40% “Up,” with $42,660 in volume already placed against a simple question: “S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on February 26?”
Polymarket, based on Polygon (CRYPTO: POL), allows users to buy “Yes” and “No” shares in USDC (CRYPTO: USDC) stablecoin. The shares representing the correct outcome are paid out $1 USDC each upon market resolution.
Why That Number Matters
The S&P has been trapped between 6,800 and 7,000 for weeks, with the VIX Volatility Index hovering near 18. Wednesday’s close sits almost exactly in the middle of that range. A clean open above it on Thursday signals the Nvidia beat was enough to sustain momentum. An open below it says the market heard the good news, shrugged, and remembered that Trump’s 10% global tariff just took effect, the Fed looks firmly on hold through at least June, and software stocks are still down over 18% for the year.
February has been a bruising month to navigate. Last Friday, the Supreme Court struck down Trump’s sweeping reciprocal tariffs, giving markets a brief exhale, and the S&P closed up 0.69% at 6,909.51. But the relief was short-lived: Trump responded within hours by announcing a new global tariff via executive order, rattling equities again at the start of this week.
The Bull Countercase
NVIDIA guided fiscal first-quarter revenue to around $78 billion, above analysts’ expectations, and its CFO said demand is “strengthening” with sequential growth expected through the year.
Thursday also brings earnings from Dell (NYSE:DELL), Intuit (NASDAQ:INTU), and CoreWeave (NASDAQ:CRWV) before and after the bell, keeping the AI infrastructure story alive.
S&P 500 futures are currently at 6,949.50, down 10.25 points or 0.15%.
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