MEOH's Q4 Earnings Miss Estimates, Revenues Up Y/Y on Higher Volumes

Methanex Corporation MEOH logged a fourth-quarter 2025 loss (attributable to shareholders) of $89 million or $1.15 per share. This compares unfavorably with a profit of $45 million or 67 cents per share in the year-ago quarter.

Adjusted loss per share (barring one-time items) in the reported quarter was 14 cents, in contrast to the Zacks Consensus Estimate of earnings of 81 cents.

Revenues increased roughly 2% year over year to $968.8 million in the quarter. The top line missed the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $994.4 million.

Adjusted EBITDA in the reported quarter fell around 17% year over year to $186 million. 

Methanex Corporation Price, Consensus and EPS Surprise

Methanex Corporation price-consensus-eps-surprise-chart | Methanex Corporation Quote

MEOH’s Operational Highlights

Production in the quarter totaled 2,364,000 tons, up 26.7% year over year. Production also increased from the prior quarter due to additional production from Chile, facilitated by increased gas availability from Argentina. The figure beat our estimate of 2,338,000 tons.

Total sales volume in the fourth quarter totaled 2,689,000 tons, up 4.9% year over year. The figure missed our estimate of 2,809,000 tons.

The average realized price for methanol was $331 per ton in the quarter, down from $370 per ton in the prior-year quarter. The figure was also below our estimate of $343.

MEOH’s Financials

Cash and cash equivalents were roughly $425.3 million at the end of the quarter. Cash flow from operating activities was $239 million in the quarter. The company returned $14.3 million to its shareholders through dividends in the reported quarter.

MEOH’s Outlook

The company expects its 2026 production to be approximately 9 million tons of methanol and 0.3 million tons of ammonia, subject to fluctuation due to availability, turnarounds, unplanned outages and unanticipated events.

MEOH expects modestly higher adjusted EBITDA in the first quarter of 2026 than in the fourth quarter of 2025, owing to flat sales volume and a slightly higher average realized price. Based on the posted prices and discounts for 2026, the company expects the average realized price to be between $330 and $340 per ton.

MEOH’s Price Performance

Shares of Methanex have gained 35% in the past year against the 12.3% decline in the industry.

MEOH’s Zacks Rank & Key Picks

MEOH currently carries a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold).

Some better-ranked stocks in the basic materials space are Orla Mining Ltd. ORLA, New Gold Inc. NGD and Franco-Nevada Corporation FNV.

Orla Mining is scheduled to report fourth-quarter results on March 19. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for ORLA’s fourth-quarter earnings is pegged at 36 cents per share, indicating 414.29% year over year growth. ORLA currently flaunts a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy) at present. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here. 

New Gold is expected to report fourth-quarter results on March 11. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for earnings is pegged at 27 cents per share, indicating 285.71% year over year growth. NGD sports a Zacks Rank #1 at present.

Franco-Nevada is slated to report fourth-quarter results on March 10. The consensus estimate for FNV’s earnings is pegged at $1.68 per share. FNV also boasts of a Zacks Rank #1. Its earnings beat the consensus estimate in each of the past four quarters, the average surprise being 7.71%.

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This article originally published on Zacks Investment Research (zacks.com).

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