Comstock Gears Up to Report Q1 Earnings: Is a Beat in Store?

Comstock Resources, Inc. CRK is set to report first-quarter earnings on April 30, after the closing bell.

Let us analyze the factors that are expected to have influenced CRK’s performance in the first quarter of 2025. Before that, it is worth taking a look at the company’s performance in the last reported quarter.

Highlights of Q4 Earnings

In the last reported quarter, the exploration and production company’s earnings surpassed the consensus mark. CRK reported an adjusted earnings of 16 cents per share, which beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate of 2 cents. However, revenues of $367 million lagged the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 2.7%.

In the trailing four quarters, CRK’s earnings beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate twice and missed the same twice, delivering an average surprise of 184.65%. (Find the latest EPS estimates and surprises on Zacks Earnings Calendar.)

This is depicted in the graph below:

Comstock Resources, Inc. Price and EPS Surprise

 

Comstock Resources, Inc. price-eps-surprise | Comstock Resources, Inc. Quote

Trend in Estimate Revision

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for CRK’s earnings is pegged at 15 cents per share and that for revenues is pinned at $418 million.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for first-quarter 2025 earnings has witnessed four upward revisions and two downward movements in the past 30 days. The estimated figure indicates a 600% year-over-year upsurge. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for the company’s revenues implies an increase of 24.5% from the year-ago period’s actual.

Factors to Consider

The average Henry Hub Natural Gas Spot prices for January, February and March of this year were $4.13, $4.19 and $4.12 per million Btu, respectively, compared with $3.18, $1.72 and $1.49 per million Btu in the previous year. Handsome and favorable gas prices will likely aid CRK, a natural gas producer, in producing more of the commodity. The overall oil pricing environment was also favorable as the breakeven costs of the exploration and production companies in the shale plays were significantly lower.

Additionally, Comstock more than doubled its Western Haynesville position by acquiring 265,000 net acres for $401 per acre in the fourth quarter. This brought its total to 518,000 net acres. The acquisition added 11 wells in 2024, six of which were turned into sales in the fourth quarter of 2024. These wells had strong average IP rates of 38 MMcf/d, supporting reserve growth and replacing 170% of annual production. In the first quarter of 2025, this acreage is likely to have benefited Comstock.

In the fourth quarter of 2024, CRK achieved significant cost reductions in the Western Haynesville. Drilling costs dropped 33% and completion costs fell 28% per lateral foot from 2022. This reflects improved well designs and better execution. First-quarter earnings are expected to have benefited from effective cost management. The aforementioned factors are likely to have a positive impact on earnings.

What Does Our Model Predict?

Our proven model predicts an earnings beat for Comstock this season. The combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) increases the odds of an earnings beat. This is exactly the case here.

Earnings ESP: Earnings ESP, which represents the difference between the Most Accurate Estimate and the Zacks Consensus Estimate, for this company is +5.86%. You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they are reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.

Zacks Rank:  CRK currently carries a Zacks Rank #3.

Other Stocks to Consider

Here are some other firms from the energy space that you may want to consider, as these, too, have the right combination of elements to post an earnings beat this season.

APA Corporation APA is expected to post an earnings beat when it announces first-quarter results on May 7, after market close. It has an Earnings ESP of +4.65% and a Zacks Rank #3 at present. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for first-quarter earnings is pinned at 81 cents per share. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for revenues is pegged at $2.18 billion, indicating year-over-year growth of 14.6%.

Antero Resources Corporation AR has an Earnings ESP of +3.79% and carries a Zacks Rank #2 at present.

Antero Resources is scheduled to release earnings on April 30. Notably, the Zacks Consensus Estimate for AR’s 2025 earnings per share indicates a 1142.9% year-over-year upsurge.

Devon Energy DVN is expected to come up with an earnings beat when it reports first-quarter results on May 6, after market close. It has an Earnings ESP of +1.71% and a Zacks Rank #3 at present.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for first-quarter earnings is pinned at $1.25 per share. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for revenues is pegged at $4.4 billion, indicating year-over-year growth of 31.3%.

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This article originally published on Zacks Investment Research (zacks.com).

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