Earnings are arguably the most important single number on a company's quarterly financial report. Wall Street clearly dives into all of the other metrics and management's input, but the EPS figure helps cut through all the noise.
The earnings figure itself is key, of course, but a beat or miss on the bottom line can sometimes be just as, if not more, important. Therefore, investors should consider paying close attention to these earnings surprises, as a big beat can help a stock climb and vice versa.
Now that we know how important earnings and earnings surprises are, it's time to show investors how to take advantage of these events to boost their returns by utilizing the Zacks Earnings ESP filter.
The Zacks Earnings ESP, Explained
The Zacks Expected Surprise Prediction, or ESP, works by locking in on the most up-to-date analyst earnings revisions because they can be more accurate than estimates from weeks or even months before the actual release date. The thinking is pretty straightforward: analysts who provide earnings estimates closer to the report are likely to have more information.
With this in mind, the Expected Surprise Prediction compares the Most Accurate Estimate (being the most recent) against the overall Zacks Consensus Estimate. The percentage difference provides the ESP figure. The system also utilizes our core Zacks Rank to provide a stronger system for identifying stocks that might beat their next quarterly earnings estimate and possibly see the stock price climb.
Bringing together a positive earnings ESP alongside a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold) or better has helped stocks report a positive earnings surprise 70% of the time. Furthermore, by using these parameters, investors have seen 28.3% annual returns on average, according to our 10 year backtest.
Stocks with a #3 (Hold) ranking, which is most stocks covered at 60%, are expected to perform in-line with the broader market. But stocks that fall into the #2 (Buy) and #1 (Strong Buy) ranking, or the top 15% and top 5% of stocks, respectively, should outperform the market. Strong Buy stocks should outperform more than any other rank.
Should You Consider Carvana?
The last thing we will do today, now that we have a grasp on the ESP and how powerful of a tool it can be, is to quickly look at a qualifying stock. Carvana (CVNA) holds a #2 (Buy) at the moment and its Most Accurate Estimate comes in at $0.73 a share 12 days away from its upcoming earnings release on May 7, 2025.
By taking the percentage difference between the $0.73 Most Accurate Estimate and the $0.71 Zacks Consensus Estimate, Carvana has an Earnings ESP of +2.35%. Investors should also know that CVNA is one of a large group of stocks with positive ESPs. Make sure to utilize our Earnings ESP Filter to uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they've reported.
CVNA is one of just a large database of Retail and Wholesale stocks with positive ESPs. Another solid-looking stock is Kroger (KR).
Slated to report earnings on June 19, 2025, Kroger holds a #2 (Buy) ranking on the Zacks Rank, and it's Most Accurate Estimate is $1.45 a share 55 days from its next quarterly update.
For Kroger, the percentage difference between its Most Accurate Estimate and its Zacks Consensus Estimate of $1.44 is +0.46%.
CVNA and KR's positive ESP figures tell us that both stocks have a good chance at beating analyst expectations in their next earnings report.
Find Stocks to Buy or Sell Before They're Reported
Use the Zacks Earnings ESP Filter to turn up stocks with the highest probability of positively, or negatively, surprising to buy or sell before they're reported for profitable earnings season trading. Check it out here >>
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Carvana Co. (CVNA): Free Stock Analysis Report The Kroger Co. (KR): Free Stock Analysis ReportThis article originally published on Zacks Investment Research (zacks.com).
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