Norwegian Cruise to Post Q1 Earnings: What's in the Cards?

Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings Ltd. NCLH is scheduled to report first-quarter 2025 results on April 30, before the opening bell.

NCLH’s earnings beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate in each of the trailing four quarters, the average surprise being 47.9%. (Find the latest earnings estimates and surprises on Zacks Earnings Calendar.)

Trend in Estimate Revision of NCLH

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for first-quarter earnings per share (EPS) is pegged at 9 cents, indicating a deterioration of 43.8% from 16 cents reported in the year-ago quarter.

For revenues, the consensus mark is pegged at nearly $2.15 billion, suggesting a decline of 2% from the prior-year quarter’s figure.

Let's look at how things have shaped up in the quarter.

Factors Likely to Shape Norwegian Cruise’s Quarterly Results

Norwegian Cruise's first-quarter performance is expected to have benefited from solid demand trends, a strong pricing environment and resilient onboard revenue performance. Continued strength in Europe and Alaska bookings, strategic deployment initiatives and enhanced onboard offerings are likely to have supported the company’s performance in the to-be-reported quarter.

Our model predicts onboard and other revenues to rise 3.3% year over year (to $755.6 million), buoyed by increased onboard spend per passenger and expanded activity offerings.

A strong book position, solid ticket pricing, expanded itineraries and new capacity additions (including preparations for the launch of Norwegian Aqua) are likely to have supported net yield growth in the first quarter. The company anticipates net yields to rise approximately 0.5% (on a constant-currency basis) from the prior year.

Elevated dry dock-related costs and delivery-related expenses tied to Norwegian Aqua are likely to have negatively impacted margins in the first quarter. The company expects first-quarter net cruise costs (excluding fuel per APCD) to rise approximately 3.9% (on a reported basis) and 2.1% after adjusting for dry dock impacts.

NCLH’s first-quarter bottom line is likely to reflect a headwind of approximately 15 cents per share courtesy of foreign exchange and fuel costs. Management expects first-quarter adjusted EPS to be approximately 8 cents.

What Our Model Says About NCLH Stock

Our proven model predicts an earnings beat for Norwegian Cruise this time around. The combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) increases the odds of an earnings beat, which is exactly the case here.

NCLH’s Earnings ESP: Norwegian Cruise has an Earnings ESP of +9.59%. You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they’re reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.

NCLH’s Zacks Rank: The company has a Zacks Rank #3 at present.

Other Stocks Poised to Beat on Earnings

Here are some other stocks from the Zacks Consumer Discretionary sector that investors may consider, as our model shows that these, too, have the right combination of elements to post an earnings beat.

Stride, Inc. LRN has an Earnings ESP of +7.83% and a Zacks Rank of 1 at present. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.

Stride is expected to register a 30.6% increase in earnings for the to-be-reported quarter. Stride reported better-than-expected earnings in each of the trailing four quarters, the average surprise being 97.8%.

Choice Hotels International, Inc. CHH currently has an Earnings ESP of +0.94% and a Zacks Rank of 3.

Choice Hotels earnings for the to-be-reported quarter are expected to increase 7.8%. Choice Hotels reported better-than-expected earnings in three of the trailing four quarters and missed on one occasion, the average surprise being 7.5%.

Caesars Entertainment, Inc. CZR currently has an Earnings ESP of +23.98% and a Zacks Rank of 3.

Caesars Entertainment’s earnings for the to-be-reported quarter are expected to increase 65.5%. Caesars Entertainment reported better-than-expected earnings in one of the trailing four quarters and missed on three occasions, the average surprise being negative 454.8%.

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This article originally published on Zacks Investment Research (zacks.com).

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