What's in the Cards for Kimco Realty Stock in Q1 Earnings?

Kimco Realty Corporation KIM is slated to report first-quarter 2025 results on May 1, before the opening bell. The company’s quarterly results are likely to display year-over-year growth in revenues and funds from operations (FFO) per share.

In the last reported quarter, this Jericho, NY-based retail real estate investment trust (REIT) met the Zacks Consensus Estimate for FFO of 42 cents per share. Results reflected better-than-expected growth in revenues, though a rise in interest expenses acted as a dampener.

Over the preceding four quarters, Kimco’s FFO per share surpassed the Zacks Consensus Estimate on three occasions and met in the remaining period, the average beat being 2.5%. This is depicted in the graph below:

Kimco Realty Corporation Price and EPS Surprise

Kimco Realty Corporation price-eps-surprise | Kimco Realty Corporation Quote

US Retail Real Estate Market in Q1 2025

Per a Cushman & Wakefield CWK report, there has been a pullback in net absorption for the U.S. shopping center market, resulting in a negative shift in the first quarter. Although the national vacancy rate increased 20 basis points (bps) to 5.5% year over year, it remains near a historical low, with minimal new construction and most tenants having already right-sized their real estate needs. Asking rents for the U.S. shopping center market grew from the year-ago quarter.

The first quarter witnessed negative net absorption in the U.S. shopping center market, totaling 5.9 million square feet (msf). This represents the largest single-quarter decline since the third quarter of 2020. The decrease was due to negative net absorption observed in all four regions of the country. Neighborhood centers accounted for 75% of the pullback in demand.

The lack of new construction is also contributing to the scarcity, as only 2.2 msf of new shopping center space was delivered from the beginning of the year through April 14, 2025. As of the first quarter of 2025, there are only 10.6 msf under construction, with an inventory of 4.32 billion square feet.

The reversal in net demand is easing pressure on asking rents. The asking rents for U.S. shopping centers increased 2.3% year over year to $24.76 per square foot in the first quarter.

Factors to Consider Ahead of KIM’s Upcoming Results

In the first quarter, Kimco seems to have gained from its portfolio of premium shopping centers, which are predominantly grocery-anchored and are in the drivable first-ring suburbs of its top major metropolitan Sunbelt and coastal markets.

Led by a healthy mix of essential, necessity-based tenants and omnichannel retailers, this retail REIT enjoys a diverse tenant base. This is likely to have aided stable revenue generation during the to-be-reported quarter, driving top-line growth. Moreover, Kimco’s focus on developing mixed-use assets clustered in strong economic metropolitan statistical areas is likely to have given it an edge by driving net asset value.

However, high interest expenses are anticipated to have affected Kimco’s performance to some extent during the quarter.

Q1 Projections for KIM

The company’s top line is expected to have improved due to the above tailwinds. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for KIM’s quarterly revenues stands at $528.9 million, implying around 5% growth from the prior-year reported number.

Our estimate for net revenues from rental properties stands at $517.6 million, suggesting a 3.8% increase year over year. We expect KIM’s leased occupancy to increase 10 basis points year over year to 96.1% in the to-be-reported quarter. However, we estimate a year-over-year increase of 6.6% in its first-quarter interest expenses.

Before the first-quarter earnings release, the company’s activities were inadequate to gain analysts’ confidence. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for the quarterly FFO per share has remained unrevised at 42 cents in the past three months. However, it suggests a year-over-year increase of 7.7%. (Find the latest EPS estimates and surprises on Zacks Earnings Calendar.)

What Our Quantitative Model Predicts for KIM

Our proven model does not conclusively predict a surprise in terms of FFO per share for Kimco this season. The combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) increases the chances of an FFO beat, which is not the case here.

Kimco currently has an Earnings ESP of -0.25% and carries a Zacks Rank of 3. You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they’re reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.

Stocks That Warrant a Look

Here are two stocks from the broader REIT sector — Host Hotels & Resorts HST and Ventas VTR — that you may want to consider, as our model shows that these have the right combination of elements to report a surprise this quarter.

Host Hotels & Resorts, scheduled to report quarterly numbers on April 30, has an Earnings ESP of +0.08% and a Zacks Rank of 3. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.

Ventas, slated to release quarterly numbers on April 30, has an Earnings ESP of +0.18% and a Zacks Rank of 2 at present.

Note: Anything related to earnings presented in this write-up represents funds from operations (FFO), a widely used metric to gauge the performance of REITs.

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This article originally published on Zacks Investment Research (zacks.com).

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