Floor & Decor Q1 Earnings on the Horizon: Key Factors at Play

As Floor & Decor Holdings, Inc. FND gears up to unveil its first-quarter 2025 earnings results on May 1, after the market closes, investors are eager to gauge the company's performance. 

The company is expected to register an increase in the top line. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for revenues stands at $1.16 billion, which indicates a notable 6.1% improvement from the prior-year figure.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for first-quarter earnings per share has been stable at 45 cents a share over the past 30 days, which suggests a decline of 2.2% from the year-ago period. Floor & Decor has a trailing four-quarter earnings surprise of 18.2%, on average. In the last reported quarter, the company’s bottom line outpaced the Zacks Consensus Estimate by a margin of 50%. (Find the latest EPS estimates and surprises on Zacks Earnings Calendar.)

Key Factors to Observe for FND's Q1 Earnings

Floor & Decor’s disciplined expansion strategy, supply chain agility, strategic investments and merchandise innovation have positioned it well to capture market share. The persistent supply-demand imbalance in housing, combined with the rising median age of owner-occupied homes, underscores the growing need for home upgrades and remodeling, key demand drivers for hard surface flooring and related categories.

The company's launch of new product categories, particularly the rollout of a semi-custom cabinet program in 40 warehouse stores and online, is expected to have been a meaningful revenue catalyst in the first quarter. By moving into adjacent remodeling categories such as cabinets, decorative accessories and outdoor products, Floor & Decor is expanding its share of customer projects beyond flooring.

The company’s disciplined approach to expanding its store footprint remains a key engine of top-line growth. By targeting warehouse-format store openings primarily in markets where brand awareness is already building, Floor & Decor ensures a faster ramp-up of new store productivity. Furthermore, its strategic push to capture a larger share of the professional customer base continues to gain traction.

While these initiatives inspire optimism, a soft start to the first quarter raises concern. As of Feb. 20, Floor & Decor's quarter-to-date comparable store sales declined 1.7%, suggesting that the momentum seen in the final quarter of 2024 may not have fully carried into the new year. Although the company has diversified its sourcing away from China over the past few years (from 50% in 2018 to 18% in 2024), tariffs remain an ongoing headwind.

Floor & Decor Holdings, Inc. Price, Consensus and EPS Surprise

Floor & Decor Holdings, Inc. price-consensus-eps-surprise-chart | Floor & Decor Holdings, Inc. Quote

What the Zacks Model Says About Floor & Decor

As investors prepare for Floor & Decor’s first-quarter results, the question looms regarding earnings beat or miss. Our proven model does not conclusively predict an earnings beat for Floor & Decor this time. The combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) increases the odds of an earnings beat. However, that’s not the case here.

Floor & Decor carries a Zacks Rank #3 but has an Earnings ESP of 0.00%. You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they’re reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.

3 Stocks With the Favorable Combination

Here are three companies you may want to consider, as our model shows that these have the right combination of elements to post an earnings beat this season:

Tapestry TPR currently has an Earnings ESP of +1.45% and a Zacks Rank of 3. TPR's top line is anticipated to increase year over year when it reports third-quarter fiscal 2025 results. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for its quarterly revenues is pegged at $1.53 billion, which suggests a 3.1% jump from the figure reported in the year-ago quarter. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.

The company is expected to register an increase in the bottom line. The consensus estimate for Tapestry’s third-quarter earnings is pegged at 89 cents a share, up 9.9% from the year-ago quarter. TPR has a trailing four-quarter earnings surprise of 11.9%, on average.

Deckers DECK has an Earnings ESP of +8.32% and currently carries a Zacks Rank of 3. DECK's top line is anticipated to advance year over year when it reports fourth-quarter fiscal 2025 results. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for its quarterly revenues is pegged at $985.6 million, which suggests a 2.7% jump from the figure reported in the year-ago quarter. 

The company is expected to register a decrease in the bottom line. The consensus estimate for Deckers’ fourth-quarter earnings is pegged at 56 cents a share, down 32.5% from the year-ago quarter. DECK has a trailing four-quarter earnings surprise of 36.8%, on average.

Capri Holdings CPRI has an Earnings ESP of +1.24% and carries a Zacks Rank of 3 at present. CPRI is likely to register a top-line decline when it reports fourth-quarter fiscal 2025 results. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for its quarterly revenues is pegged at $982.8 million, which suggests a 19.6% decrease from the figure reported in the year-ago quarter. 

The consensus estimate for Capri Holdings’ fourth-quarter bottom line is pegged at a loss of 16 cents a share. CPRI has a trailing four-quarter negative earnings surprise of 43.9%, on average.

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This article originally published on Zacks Investment Research (zacks.com).

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