VST Stock Trades at a Premium Valuation: How to Play With the Stock?

Vistra Corp. VST is trading at a premium relative to the Zacks Utility Electric Power industry, with a forward 12-month price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 20.41X compared to the industry average of 14.28X.

The company benefits from strong residential and business results in both Texas and Midwest and Northeast markets. More than 95% of the commercial availability of its generation assets allows the company to gain by catering to the increasing demand in its service territories.

Vistra is currently trading at a premium compared with another industry operator, Duke Energy Corporation DUK, which has a strong nuclear fleet. The current P/E- F12M ratio of DUK is 18.7X.

Courtesy of its high availability of generation assets and steady demand for its services, the company reported stable performance, which is reflected in its share prices. The company’s shares have outperformed the industry’s rally in the past year.

Price Performance (One Year)

Should you consider adding VST to your portfolio only based on positive price movements, ignoring its premium valuation? Let’s delve deeper and find out the factors that can help investors decide whether it is a good entry point to add VST stock to their portfolio.

Factors Contributing Toward VST Stock’s Performance

Vistra stands to gain from the rising demand for clean electricity within its service region. This growth is fueled by the rapid development of large-scale data centers and the ongoing electrification of oil field operations in the Permian Basin. In addition, increasing power needs from semiconductor manufacturers, industrial clients, and a growing residential customer base are further driving demand for the company’s services.

Vistra is steadily growing its clean energy portfolio through a combination of organic development and strategic acquisitions. The company has secured over 70 sites with available land and grid interconnections, designated for future renewable energy projects. These resources provide Vistra with a strong foundation to meet the rising demand for clean power across its service regions.

Vistra’s strong hedging strategy significantly improves the visibility of its future earnings. As of Feb. 24, 2025, the company has fully hedged its projected production for the year and covered 80% of its expected output for 2026. This proactive approach enhances financial stability and reduces exposure to market fluctuations.

A Business Insider report projects that leading technology companies will invest close to $1 trillion in data centers over the next five years. Vistra, with its diversified generation capacity of 41,000 MW, which includes natural gas, nuclear, coal, solar, and battery storage, is well-positioned to support this rising energy demand and seize new growth opportunities.

Mixed Movement in Earnings Estimates for VST

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for VST’s 2025 earnings per share is showing a year-over-year decline, while 2026 earnings per share are showing improvement on a year-over-year basis.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Duke Energy’s 2025 and 2026 earnings per share reflects a year-over-year growth of 7.12% and 6.24%, respectively.

Vistra Raising Shareholders’ Value

Vistra continues to increase shareholders' value through its share repurchase program and dividend payments.

The company bought back shares worth over $4.9 billion from November 2021 through Feb. 24, 2025. VST’s management expects to continue with the buyback of shares and aims to repurchase shares worth $1.9 billion through year-end 2026.

VST’s board of directors has also approved a quarterly dividend of 22.35 cents for the first quarter of 2025 and is targeting an annual dividend payment of $300 million. VST has raised its dividend 14 times in the past five years. Check VST’s dividend history here.

Another company, Constellation Energy Corporation CEG also generates substantial volume of clean energy from its nuclear units. The company also raised its dividend for four times in the last five years.

VST’s ROE Higher Than Its Industry

VST’s trailing 12-month return on equity (ROE) is 71.84%, ahead of the industry average of 9.77%. ROE, a profitability measure, reflects how effectively a company is utilizing its shareholders’ funds in its operations to generate income.

Constellation Energy is also utilizing its shareholders’ funds better than its industry peers. CEG’s ROE currently stands at 21.96%.

Wrapping Up

Vistra's comprehensive hedging program and more than 70 sites with land and interconnects for the future development of clean energy projects will allow it to move toward more clean electricity generation.

Vistra stands to gain from the rising demand for clean electricity within its service region. Vistra’s strong hedging strategy significantly improves the visibility of its future earnings by safeguarding it from price fluctuation in future generation volumes.

Given that VST shares are currently trading at a premium, existing investors may find it wise to hold their positions in this Zacks Rank #3 (Hold) stock, benefit from dividend payouts, and consider identifying a more attractive entry point for additional investment in the future.

You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank (Strong Buy) stocks here.

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This article originally published on Zacks Investment Research (zacks.com).

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