U.S. CPI in focus as CoreWeave surges on AI demand and Hormuz traffic falls: Dow Jones, S&P, Nasdaq, Wall Street Futures

U.S. stock futures moved higher ahead of closely watched July inflation figures, with investors looking for clues about how the data could influence Federal Reserve interest rate decisions over the coming months. CoreWeave (NASDAQ:CRWV) shares surged after booming artificial intelligence demand drove another sharp increase in revenue, although the cloud-computing company’s heavy capital spending remained a concern. Meanwhile, shipping activity through the Strait of Hormuz dropped to its lowest level in a week as Middle East hostilities continued.

U.S. futures edge higher before inflation data

Futures tied to major Wall Street indices were mostly positive as markets prepared for July’s consumer price index, which could play an important role in shaping expectations for Federal Reserve policy through the remainder of the year.

At 03:09 ET (07:09 GMT), Dow futures were broadly unchanged, while S&P 500 futures advanced 13 points, or 0.2%. Nasdaq 100 futures climbed 117 points, equivalent to 0.4%.

Wall Street’s major averages declined in the previous session as traders navigated sharp fluctuations in oil prices triggered by conflicting developments surrounding the Middle East conflict. Persistently high crude prices have fuelled concerns that energy costs could increase inflation and potentially encourage central banks to tighten monetary policy.

Market sentiment nevertheless received some support from a series of U.S. economic releases that Deutsche Bank analysts said “generally came in on the positive side,” including stronger-than-anticipated small business optimism.

July CPI takes centre stage

Investors are now focused on July’s consumer price index, potentially the most significant economic release for markets this week.

The Labor Department’s headline inflation measure is expected to ease slightly to 3.4% in the 12 months through July, compared with 3.5% previously. The index includes gasoline costs, which have remained elevated since the Iran war began in late February, increasing concerns about energy-related inflation.

Excluding volatile energy and food prices, “core” CPI is forecast to moderate to 2.5% from 2.6%.

Vital Knowledge analysts noted that inflation at these levels would still be considerably above the Federal Reserve’s target. Higher interest rates could help restrain price pressures, but further tightening could also threaten broader economic activity, particularly as the labour market shows signs of weakness.

Deutsche Bank analysts pointed out that CPI is not normally the Fed’s preferred inflation measure, with policymakers instead focusing more closely on the core personal consumption expenditures price index, which is due later this month.

“But today’s CPI and tomorrow’s [producer price index] (where a few components feed into the PCE) will offer us an initial steer on prices in July and will help to shape the upcoming market narrative,” the analysts wrote in a note.

CoreWeave shares surge after record quarterly revenue

CoreWeave shares jumped more than 15% in extended trading on Wednesday after the neocloud company delivered record revenue for a fifth consecutive quarter, highlighting continued strong demand for computing infrastructure used to power artificial intelligence applications.

The company’s sales backlog, representing future business from recurring customers, climbed to $104 billion, almost twice the size of its order book in November. CoreWeave also said it had secured $25 billion of net new customer commitments during the current quarter.

CEO Michael Intrator described the period as the “strongest bookings quarter” in CoreWeave’s history.

CoreWeave purchases advanced AI chips from Nvidia before deploying them in data centres and leasing computing capacity to customers. Revenue reached $2.58 billion in the June quarter, exceeding market expectations.

However, Vital Knowledge analysts warned that capital expenditure was “elevated and ran ahead of expectations.” Strong customer demand has required CoreWeave to invest heavily in additional infrastructure and capacity, contributing to mounting losses. Since its March 2025 stock market debut, the company has accumulated net losses of $1.64 billion.

Strait of Hormuz shipping drops to one-week low

Shipping activity through the Strait of Hormuz fell sharply on Tuesday, with only eight vessels tracked in the waterway, according to shipping data cited by Reuters. That represented the lowest total in a week.

The decline highlights the reluctance of shipping operators to use the narrow passage off Iran’s southern coast while violence continues across the region.

Concerns intensified after both the U.S. and Iran-backed Houthis in Yemen announced attacks in the region on Tuesday, further weakening expectations that an agreement to restore shipping through Hormuz could be reached soon. Before the Iran war began in late February, the strait handled roughly one-fifth of global oil flows.

Tuesday’s count of eight vessels was below the 10-day average of approximately 12 and represented the lowest figure since August 5, according to Reuters.

Brent crude rises amid conflicting Hormuz signals

Brent crude futures were trading 0.6% higher at $89.46 a barrel as markets continued to react to competing signals over the prospects of reopening the Strait of Hormuz.

Prices initially fell after comments from Qatar’s Foreign Ministry and Pakistan’s Defense Minister raised brief hopes that an agreement could be reached to restore shipping through the waterway. Brent subsequently touched an intraday low of $86.60 a barrel.

Oil prices later reversed course and moved higher following reports from Iranian state media indicating that Tehran would not reopen Hormuz until conditions outlined during the previous weekend were satisfied. Iran’s Secretary of the Supreme National Security Council also said that an agreement with Oman concerning the waterway would “remain a separate issue from the strait’s closure.”

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