New Reports Show Cooling Economy, Bond Yields Climb

Tuesday, August 18th, 2026

Pre-market futures are in the red following a somewhat down trading day Monday. The Dow is -79 points at this hour, the S&P 500 is -39 and the tech-heavy Nasdaq is -405 points at this hour. The small-cap Russell 2000 is -11 points currently.

The 30-year bond yield (we usually talk in terms of 10-year and 2-year yields) reached its highest level in 19 years — pre-Great Recession financial collapse — this morning, currently sitting at +5.32%. The 10-year yield is now at a 19-month high — +4.74%, the highest on the second Trump administration — and the 2-year, while off the recent highs of four weeks ago, hovers around +4.20%.

Hopes for a peaceful resolution that would re-open the Strait of Hormuz have faded this week, and spot oil prices are ratcheting up again as a result. With Iran tightening ship traffic through the Strait today and Yemeni Houthis bombing a refinery at Saudi Aramco for the second time in two weeks, Brent crude is back above $91 per barrel (/bbl) again this morning; U.S.-based West Texas Intermediate (WTI) is at $85/bbl.
 

Housing Data Gets Cold in July

Ahead of today’s opening bell, Housing Starts for July came in below estimates: +1.239 million seasonally adjusted, annualized units — the lightest print since May — versus +1.35 million units expected and +1.42 million the prior month. Single-family homebuilding dropped -9.9% month over month and -16% year over year, while Multi-family homes — which had begun to come down in price due to historic expansion — are down -15.6% month over month.

Higher mortgage prices appear to once again be the culprit: +6.73% on the average 30-year fixed (and rising, if this morning’s 30-year bond yield has anything to say about it). The Midwest was hit hardest, -27.6% year over year, followed by the West, -13.8%, and the South, -12.6%. The Northeast remained the housing starts leader, +17.1% from one year ago.

Building Permits, something of a proxy for future Starts, were up +5% on a preliminary basis to 1.443 million seasonally adjusted, annualized units. This is the strongest read since February of this year, and only the third print in positive territory so far in 2026. If you’re looking for a silver lining in today’s housing data, this is it. Keep in mind, however, these preliminary numbers are subject to change in forthcoming reports.
 

Imports and Exports Down 2 Months Straight

Also for July, Import Prices dropped an unexpected -0.4% from the consensus estimate of +0.1%, and down from the big downward revision for June, which went from +0.3% initially to -0.3% this morning. Aside from two months of no Imports data in the fall of 2025, this is the first back-to-back negative monthly print since September of last year. Ex-petrol prices, the core numbers swings back up to +0.3%, so we see the direct effect of oil prices on the Import market. Year over year reached +5.9%, well below estimates.

Exports came in at -1.3% — the lowest monthly read in more than three years. It again was the first back-to-back negative print of the year; in fact, we haven’t seen this since late summer of 2024. Year over year, Exports dimmed to +8.2% from a downwardly revised +10% for June. It’s the second-straight month lower and the coolest level since March of this year.
 

Home Depot Beats Q2 Estimates

Speaking as we were of housing data, Home Depot HD demonstrates how it benefited from homeowners staying put and fixing up their current dwellings: earnings of $4.92 per share outpaced the $4.71 in the Zacks consensus, while revenues of $47.86 billion, up +1.88% from estimates. CEO Ted Decker is expected to return from his medical leave, according to the company’s CFO this morning. Shares are up +1.5% on the news, nearly bringing the stock back to breakeven for the year. For more on HD’s earnings, click here.

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