Suncor Energy to Report Q1 Earnings: Here's What to Expect

Suncor Energy Inc. SU is set to report first-quarter 2025 earnings on May 6, after the closing bell. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for earnings is pegged at 86 cents per share and the same for revenues is pinned at $8.34 billion.

Let us delve into the factors that might have influenced SU’s performance in the to-be-reported quarter. Before that, it is worth taking a look at the company’s performance in the last reported quarter.

Highlights of SU’s Q4 Earnings & Surprise History

In the previous reported quarter, this Alberta-based integrated oil and gas company’s earnings beat the consensus mark. SU reported an earnings per share of 89 cents per share, which beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate of 82 cents. This was primarily due to strong production growth in its upstream segment in the reported quarter. The company’s operating revenues of $8.9 billion beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 4.3%.

SU’s earnings beat the consensus estimate in each of the trailing four quarters, delivering an average surprise of 17.58%. (Find the latest EPS estimates and surprises on Zacks Earnings Calendar.)

This is depicted in the graph below: 

Suncor Energy Inc. Price and EPS Surprise

Suncor Energy Inc. price-eps-surprise | Suncor Energy Inc. Quote

Trend in SU’s Estimate Revision

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for first-quarter 2025 earnings has not witnessed any movement in the past seven days. The estimated figure indicates an 18.10% year-over-year decrease. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for revenues implies a decrease of 10.21% from the year-ago period’s actual.

Factors to Consider Ahead of SU’s Q1 Release

Suncor Energy makes money by operating in three main areas. First, in its Oil Sands business, Suncor extracts and processes oil from Canada's oil sands, producing crude oil and synthetic oil. Second, through its Exploration and Production segment, Suncor operates offshore oil and gas fields, producing and selling crude oil and natural gas. Finally, in its Refining and Marketing segment, Suncor refines crude oil into products like gasoline and diesel. Suncor sells these products through its retail gas stations and other distribution channels.

The company is expected to process 462 million barrels of crude oil per day (mbbls/d) at its refineries, an increase of 6.7 mbbls/d from the first quarter of 2024. Oil sands production is expected to reach 792 mbbls/d, up 7 mbbls/d from the first quarter of 2024. We expect refinery utilization to increase to 99% in the first quarter of 2025 compared with 98% in the first quarter of 2024.

Despite these operational strengths, profitability is likely to have faced challenges due to external market factors. Even with higher production, weaker oil prices or refining margins are likely to have limited revenue growth, potentially affecting earnings.

Furthermore, fluctuations in refining crack spreads and fuel demand are likely to have pressured downstream margins, reducing the financial benefit of record throughput levels. On a more cautious note, inflationary pressures are likely to have increased operational expenses, with rising input costs and labor expenses potentially affecting overall profitability in the to-be-reported quarter.

What Does Our Model Predict About SU?

The proven Zacks model does not conclusively predict an earnings beat for Suncor Energy this time around. The combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) increases the chances of an earnings beat. However, that is not the case here.

Earnings ESP of SU: Earnings ESP, which represents the difference between the Most Accurate Estimate and the Zacks Consensus Estimate, for this company is -5.60%. You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they’re reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.

SU’s Zacks Rank: SU currently carries a Zacks Rank #3.

Stocks to Consider

Here are some firms from the energy space that you may want to consider, as these have the right combination of elements to post an earnings beat this season.

ConocoPhillips COP has an Earnings ESP of +1.87% and a Zacks Rank #3 at present. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.

ConocoPhillips is scheduled to release earnings on May 8.  Headquartered in Houston, TX, ConocoPhillips is primarily involved in the exploration and production of oil and natural gas.

Calumet, Inc. (CLMT) has an Earnings ESP of +15.32% and a Zacks Rank #3 at present. The company is scheduled to release earnings on May 9.

Calumet manufactures, formulates and markets a diversified slate of specialty branded products and renewable fuels to customers across a broad range of consumer-facing and industrial markets.

APA Corporation (APA) has an Earnings ESP of +4.65% and a Zacks Rank #3 at present.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for APA’s 2025 earnings per share indicates 3.85% year-over-year growth. Founded in 1954, Houston, TX-based APA Corporation is one of the world's leading independent energy companies engaged in the exploration, development and production of natural gas, crude oil and natural gas liquids. APA is scheduled to release earnings on May 7.

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This article originally published on Zacks Investment Research (zacks.com).

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