RealReal Stock Flashing "Stay Away" Signal Ahead of Earnings

The RealReal Inc (NASDAQ:REAL) is up 3.5% to trade at $11.16 today, heading for its highest close since late August. The e-commerce concern reports earnings after the market closes this Thursday, Oct. 29. Ahead of the event, the stock is up 27% this month, but could be headed for a breather after testing a historically bearish trendline.

Per Schaeffer's Senior Quantitative Analyst Rocky White, REAL has traded within 0.75 times the 200-day moving average's 20-day average true range (ATR), after spending at least 80% of the previous two weeks and 80% of the prior 42 trading sessions below the trendline. This setup has occurred three other times over the last decade, after which the stock was lower one month later every time, averaging a 15.7% loss.

From the stock's current perch, a similar pullback would put the REAL back at single digits. Despite the fall rally, the shares are still down 29.1% year to date. For Friday's trading, the options market is pricing in a larger-than-usual post-earnings move of 20%.

RealReal averages a post-earnings move of 21.4%, regardless of direction, after the last 12 reports. However, the last three trips to the earnings confessional have resulted in moves to the downside. 

Given the technical troubles in 2026, a shift in analyst sentiment could also weigh. Of the 10 brokerages covering REAL, seven maintain "buy" or better, with zero "sells" on the books. Plus, the consensus 12-month price target of $17.75 is a 59% premium from the equity's current perch.