Spire's Seasonal Loss Matters Less Than Its 2028 Outlook And Missouri Rate Filing

Spire's fiscal fourth quarter is always a seasonal money loser for a gas utility, so the headline loss is unlikely to decide how the stock trades. The real event is what management attaches to it. This is the report where the company has promised to roll out fiscal 2028 guidance, rebase its long-term growth math, and frame its first future test year rate case in Missouri. Last quarter it described 2028 as a step-up year at the high end of its 5% to 7% growth target. The stock has rallied hard since then, so the November call now has to deliver on that promise.

For the September quarter, Wall Street expects a loss of $1.00 per share on revenue of about $313.1 million. That would be more than double the $0.47 loss a year ago, and revenue would be down 6.3%. Those comparisons deserve some caution. Spire closed the sales of its marketing and storage businesses during the June quarter and now reports as a fully regulated gas utility with a FERC pipeline. Part of the deeper seasonal loss reflects losing businesses that used to soften the summer trough, not a collapse in the core utility. The whisper number is $1.02, a hair below consensus. That difference is too small to signal real anxiety about the quarter itself.

The annual picture looks better anchored. Management has reaffirmed fiscal 2026 earnings of $3.90 to $4.10 per share on a continuing operations basis, and consensus of $4.01 sits right at the midpoint. For fiscal 2027, the Street's $5.52 is a touch above the middle of the $5.40 to $5.60 range. Analysts are not demanding upside, but they are not leaving much room for slippage either. A fiscal 2026 result near the midpoint would show that the mild-winter damage stayed contained. That shortfall forced a cut to gas utility segment guidance in the spring, to $275 million to $295 million. Finishing inside that lowered range would support the stabilization story management told last quarter. Landing near the bottom would revive questions about how much weather risk still flows through to shareholders.

Several regulatory threads should come into focus. New Tennessee rates from the first Annual Review Mechanism filing, seeking a $14 million increase, took effect October 1. Any commentary on the final outcome will help show how quickly the Tennessee acquisition contributes. In Alabama, the rate renewal hearings have passed. The gap between the company's requested returns of 10.5% and 10.75% and interveners' suggested 8% to 9% makes the result a meaningful input for future earnings power. In Missouri, the settlement with staff and the consumer advocate created a path toward better protection from weather swings. However, it did not quantify or recover the margin lost last winter. How the future test year filing treats both issues will show whether Missouri weather risk is truly being solved or merely managed.

The balance sheet is the quieter test. Funds from operations to debt was running near 13%, below a lowered 14% to 15% target that management does not expect to reach until the end of 2028. Signs of progress, or a financing plan that avoids heavy equity issuance alongside the $11.2 billion ten-year capital plan, would strengthen the case for steady growth.

Expectations have firmed even as sentiment cooled. The shares are up about 12% since the last report while the S&P 500 slipped 3%. The stock trades comfortably above its 200-day moving average, roughly 4% below its post-earnings high. Sentiment, by contrast, has drifted from mildly bullish to essentially neutral. That combination suggests the stock's rally reflects confidence in the de-risked model rather than enthusiasm about the quarter. The verdict will turn on whether the 2028 guidance genuinely lands at the high end of the growth range, with a credible Missouri filing behind it. Anything less would make the recent outperformance hard to justify.

This earnings preview was originally published on Earnings Whispers.

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