Aveanna Clears Consensus But Falls Short Of The Whisper As A Record EBITDA Quarter Meets Slowing Revenue Growth And A Temporary California Rate Win

Aveanna Healthcare (NASDAQ: AVAH) reported third-quarter earnings of $0.22 per share, above the $0.19 consensus estimate but 8.3% below the $0.24 Earnings Whisper number. Revenue of $695.54 million beat the $683.17 million consensus by 1.8% and grew 11.8% year over year. Earnings grew 83.3%. The company reported GAAP diluted EPS of $0.20 and adjusted EPS of $0.23, so the normalized figure sits between the two. Management raised full-year guidance for a third straight quarter and posted its first $100 million adjusted EBITDA quarter. The central tension is that profitability is accelerating while the top line is not. Revenue growth has stepped down every quarter this year, from 15.9% to 13.7% to 11.8%, and the expectations bar was set above what the quarter delivered.

The quality of the beat deserves scrutiny. Adjusted EBITDA rose 25% to $100.1 million, and margin widened to 14.4% from 12.9%. That is a sharp acceleration from 8% growth in the second quarter. The cleaner improvement was in the field:

• Consolidated gross margin held at 32.6%.
• Field contribution margin improved to 17.7% from 17.3%, as branch and regional costs grew 8.5% against 11.8% revenue growth.

The GAAP picture flatters more. Operating income jumped 55.9%, largely because corporate expense fell 31% to $35.9 million. Last year's corporate line included $22.3 million of adjusted items, mostly debt-modification fees. Strip those out and underlying corporate costs were roughly flat. Net income of $45.5 million also benefited from $7.9 million of interest-rate-derivative gains and $8 million less interest expense, partly offset by a swing to tax expense.

Beneath the consolidated slowdown, the segment picture is mixed rather than uniformly weaker.

• **Home health and hospice:** This was the standout. Episodes rose 24% (versus 18.5% in Q2), admissions rose 19.6%, episodic mix reached 80%, and segment revenue grew 15.6%. Home health gross margin did ease to 53.3% from 53.9% sequentially.
• **Medical Solutions:** Unique patients served rose 7.7% (versus 4.4% in Q2) and gross margin edged up to 45.2%. However, management softened its earlier double-digit growth ambition for early 2027 to high single digits.
• **Private duty services (PDS):** The largest business is where deceleration is concentrated. Growth slowed from 16.4% to 14.0% to 11.6% over the three quarters. Revenue per hour slipped to $44.09 from $44.62 in Q2, and spread per hour dipped to $12.75 from $12.88. Year over year, Q3 PDS gross margin was essentially flat at 28.9%, a meaningful improvement from the 1.7-point compression across the nine-month period. Hours grew 10.2%. Aveanna hit its goal of 38 preferred payers and is tracking toward about 40, but preferred MCO volume share rose only one point to 65%.

The forward catalysts are real, but several carry qualifiers.

• **Guidance:** Full-year targets are now above $2.695 billion in revenue and above $374 million in adjusted EBITDA. The EBITDA guide has moved up from $318-322 million at the initial outlook.
• **Implied fourth quarter:** The guide points to a sequential decline, and management anchored Q4 EBITDA in the mid-$90 millions.
• **California:** The state's Department of Health Care Services validated roughly $60 million of private duty nursing rate support. It is treating this as a supplemental payment for January through June 2027, not a permanent fee-schedule change. As a result, the proactive wage pass-through management flagged last quarter is on hold. That defers the volume unlock the investment was meant to drive, and permanence now depends on the 2028 state budget.
• **Home health rates:** The final 2027 CMS rule came in at about +2.4%, which management says marks a turn in the rate cycle.
• **Balance sheet:** Year-to-date free cash flow reached $141.2 million, liquidity rose to $492 million, and a new $880 million rate cap at a 5.25% strike effectively hedges variable-rate debt through 2029. Total debt of $1.52 billion still makes that hedging relevant.

The market setup is more complicated than the consensus beat implies. Shares had risen 29.7% since the open after the August report, to $13.09. That leaves them about 39% above the 200-day moving average. They are also roughly 11% below the $14.71 inter-earnings high set on September 16, which was also a 52-week high. Investor sentiment remained positive but weakened sharply, falling from 0.53 to 0.24 ahead of the report. That suggests enthusiasm had cooled even as the stock held most of its gains. The Earnings Whispers trend signals remain mostly positive, with sequential growth, momentum, and AVWAP all constructive, though price trend is neutral. Coming into the print, investors were paying for continued upside, and the whisper miss shows how high that bar had been set.

The bottom line is that Aveanna delivered a credible operating quarter: record EBITDA, a third guidance raise, accelerating home health volumes, and strong cash generation. These keep the profitable-growth narrative intact. Bears have legitimate ammunition, however:

• revenue growth decelerating for a third straight quarter;
• softer sequential PDS pricing and spread;
• an implied Q4 step-down;
• a California rate win that is temporary for now;
• a trimmed Medical Solutions growth ambition.

With the stock well above its long-term average and sentiment fading, the next leg likely depends less on margin expansion and more on whether PDS growth stabilizes and California's rate support becomes permanent.

Read our earnings preview for Aveanna Healthcare Holdings, Inc: https://www.earningswhispers.com/article/AVAH/22863

This earnings review was originally published on Earnings Whispers.

This article is for informational purposes only and is not investment advice. Earnings Whispers and its staff may hold positions in the securities mentioned. It is AI-assisted, based on proprietary Earnings Whispers data and company reports, and edited by Earnings Whispers staff.