Air Lease to Report Q1 Earnings: What's in Store for the Stock?

Air Lease Corporation (AL) is scheduled to report first-quarter 2025 results on May 5, after market close.

Air Lease’s earnings outpaced the Zacks Consensus Estimate in two of the trailing four quarters, the average beat being 3.31%. However, the company missed the Zacks Consensus Estimate in the remaining two quarters. (See the Zacks Earnings Calendar to stay ahead of market-making news)

Let’s see how things have shaped up for Air Lease this earnings season.

Factors Likely to Have Influenced AL’s Q1 Performance

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Air Lease’s first-quarter 2025 revenues is pegged at $710.84 million, indicating growth of 7.2% year over year. The top line is likely to have benefited from continuous growth in the company’s fleet, an increase in sales activity and higher end-of-lease revenues.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for first-quarter revenues of rental of flight equipmentis pegged at $664 million, indicating 8.1% growth from the year-ago reported figure. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for aircraft sales, trading activity and other sources’ first-quarter revenues is pegged at $44 million, indicating a 10.1% decline from the year-ago reported figure.  

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for AL’s first-quarter 2025 earnings has been revised downward by 3.1% to $1.24 in the past 60 days. Additionally, the consensus mark implies a 5.34% decline from the year-ago actuals.

We expect rising operating expenses due to higher selling, general and administrative expenses, interest expenses and depreciation of flight equipment costs are likely to have affected AL's bottom-line growth. Higher interest expense due to an increase in the composite cost of funds remains another concern. Production delays at Boeing have also been hurting the fleet-related plans of AL.

What Our Model Says

Our proven model does not conclusively predict an earnings beat for Air Lease this time around. The combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy), or 3 (Hold) increases the odds of an earnings beat. But that’s not the case here. You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they’re reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.

Air Lease has an Earnings ESP of 0.00% and a Zacks Rank #3.

Air Lease Corporation Price and EPS Surprise

Air Lease Corporation price-eps-surprise | Air Lease Corporation Quote

Highlights of AL’s Q4 Earnings

Air Lease reported solid fourth-quarter 2024 results, wherein both earnings and revenues surpassed the Zacks Consensus Estimate. Quarterly earnings per share of $1.34 beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $1.14. However, the bottom line fell year over year owing to higher interest expense, driven by the increase in AL’s composite cost of funds and overall outstanding debt balance.

Total revenues of $712.9 million surpassed the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $706.4 million but fell 0.5% year over year.

Stocks to Consider

Here are a few stocks from the broader Zacks Transportation sector that investors may consider, as our model shows that these have the right combination of elements to beat on earnings this reporting cycle.

Expeditors International of Washington EXPD currently has an Earnings ESP of +3.76% and a Zacks Rank of 3. The company is slated to report first-quarter 2025 results on May 6.

Expeditors, a leading third-party logistics provider, is based in Seattle, WA. While weak volumes (with respect to air-freight tonnage and ocean containers) stemming from soft demand and declining rates are likely to have hurt EXPD’s performance, efforts to cut costs in the face of demand weakness are likely to have driven the bottom line.

EXPD beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate in three of the last four quarters and matched estimates once, the average beat being 11.6%.

GXO Logistics GXO currently has an Earnings ESP of +1.18% and a Zacks Rank of 3. The company is slated to report first-quarter 2025 results on May 7.

GXO Logistics, a pure-play contract logistics provider, is headquartered in Greenwich, CT. 

Increased e-commerce, automation and outsourcing are likely to aid the company’s results. Cost-cutting efforts are also likely to have boosted the bottom-line performance of GXO. The company beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate in two of the last four quarters, matched estimates once and missed once, with the average beat being 1.04%.

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This article originally published on Zacks Investment Research (zacks.com).

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