Toyota Gears Up to Report Q4 Results: Here's What to Expect

Toyota Motor Corporation TM is slated to release fourth-quarter fiscal 2025 results on May 14, after market close. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for the to-be-reported quarter’s earnings and revenues is pegged at $2.92 per share and $78.47 billion, respectively.

For the fiscal fourth quarter, the consensus estimate for TM’s earnings per share has moved down by $1.17 in the past 90 days. Its bottom-line estimates imply a decline of 41.48% from the year-ago reported number.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for revenues suggests year-over-year growth of 5.24%.

TM surpassed the Zacks Consensus Estimate in three of the trailing four quarters and missed once, the average surprise being 56.20%. This is depicted in the graph below:

Toyota Motor Corporation Price and EPS Surprise

Toyota Motor Corporation price-eps-surprise | Toyota Motor Corporation Quote

Q3 Highlights

In third-quarter fiscal 2025, Toyota posted adjusted quarterly earnings of $9.98 per share, which topped the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $4.36 and rose from $6.81 reported a year ago. TM posted revenues of $81.35 billion, beating the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $78.36 billion but falling from $81.54 billion in the year-ago quarter.

Things to Note

In the fiscal fourth quarter, Toyota sold 570,269 vehicles in the United States, up 0.9% year over year. Toyota Europe sold 321,067 vehicles in the fiscal fourth quarter, up 0.4% year over year. Higher sales volumes in the United States and Europe are likely to have boosted the company’s top-line growth in the fiscal fourth quarter.

Here's a sneak peek at the firm’s key revenue projections for the to-be-reported quarter.

Our estimate for quarterly revenues from Japan, which has the highest contribution to the company’s revenues, is pegged at ¥5.13 trillion, suggesting a rise from ¥4.88 trillion recorded in the prior-year quarter. Our estimate for revenues from North America is pegged at ¥4.55 trillion, indicating a rise from ¥4.39 trillion recorded in the year-ago quarter.

Our estimate for revenues from Europe is pegged at ¥1.46 trillion, indicating a decline from ¥1.50 trillion recorded in the year-ago period. Our estimate for quarterly revenues from Asia is pegged at ¥2.14 trillion, suggesting a rise from ¥2.05 trillion reported in the year-ago quarter. Our estimate for revenues from Other is pegged at ¥1.11 trillion, indicating a decline from ¥1.23 billion recorded in the year-ago quarter.

Toyota expects fiscal 2025 operating income to be ¥4.7 trillion, indicating a contraction of 12.2% year over year. Investment in human resources and growth areas was expected to be a big hit on the operating profits in fiscal 2025. This anticipated decline in fiscal 2025 operating income is likely to have impacted the company’s profit in the to-be-reported quarter.

Earnings Whispers for TM

Our proven model does not conclusively predict an earnings beat for Toyota this time around, as it does not have the right combination of the two key ingredients. A positive Earnings ESP, combined with a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold), increases the odds of an earnings beat. This is not the case here.

Earnings ESP: TM has an Earnings ESP of 0.00%. This is because the Most Accurate Estimate is in line with the Zacks Consensus Estimate. You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they’re reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.

(Find the latest EPS estimates and surprises on Zacks Earnings Calendar.)

Zacks Rank: Toyota currently carries a Zacks Rank #3.

Earnings Whispers for Other Auto Stocks

Lucid Group, Inc. LCID has an Earnings ESP of -3.30% and a Zacks Rank #3 at present. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.

It is scheduled to post first-quarter earnings on May 6. The Zacks Consensus Estimate is pegged at a loss of 23 cents per share.

LCID missed estimates in three of the trailing four quarters and surpassed once, the average negative surprise being 10.04%.

Rivian Automotive, Inc. RIVN has an Earnings ESP of +9.70% and a Zacks Rank #4 (Sell) at present. The company is slated to post first-quarter 2025 earnings on May 6. The Zacks Consensus Estimate is pegged at a loss of 80 cents per share.

RIVN surpassed earnings estimates in one of the trailing four quarters and missed thrice, the average negative surprise being 2.71%.

Blink Charging Co. BLNK has an Earnings ESP of 0.00% and a Zacks Rank #3 at present. The company is scheduled to post first-quarter 2025 earnings on May 12. The Zacks Consensus Estimate is pegged at a loss of 14 cents per share.

BLNK surpassed earnings estimates in three of the trailing four quarters and missed once, the average surprise being 9.37%.

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This article originally published on Zacks Investment Research (zacks.com).

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