Mosaic to Report Q1 Earnings: What's in the Offing for the Stock?

The Mosaic Company MOS is set to release first-quarter 2025 results after the closing bell on May 6.

The fertilizer maker delivered a negative earnings surprise of around 17.2%, on average, over the trailing four quarters. It delivered a negative earnings surprise of around 15.1% in the last reported quarter. The company’s first-quarter results are likely to reflect the impacts of weak fertilizer prices. It is expected to have gained from healthy fertilizer demand and cost-management actions.

Mosaic’s shares have gained 5.1% in the past year compared with the Zacks Fertilizers industry’s 9.2% rise.

Let’s see how things are shaping up for this announcement.

What Our Model Unveils for MOS Stock

Our proven model predicts an earnings beat for Mosaic this time around. The combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) increases the chances of an earning beat.

Earnings ESP: Earnings ESP for MOS is +15.82%. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for the first quarter is currently pegged at 39 cents. You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they’re reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.

Zacks Rank: MOS currently carries a Zacks Rank #3.

(Find the latest EPS estimates and surprises on Zacks Earnings Calendar.)

What do MOS’s Revenue Estimates Indicate?

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Mosaic’s first-quarter consolidated sales is currently pegged at $2,665.9 million, calling for a decline of 0.5% from the year-ago quarter’s tally.

Factors at Play for MOS Stock

Mosaic is expected to have gained from favorable demand for phosphate and potash in the March quarter, aided by favorable agricultural conditions. Attractive farm economics is driving demand for fertilizers globally. Farmer economics remain favorable in most global growing regions due to strong crop demand and affordable inputs. Demand for grains and oilseeds remains high globally. 

Mosaic is also taking action to reduce costs amid a still challenging operating environment. Its actions to improve its operating cost structure through transformation plans are expected to have aided profitability in the first quarter. MOS remains on track with its cost-reduction plan, which is expected to drive $150 million in run-rate cost reductions by the end of 2025.

Softer fertilizer prices are likely to have weighed on MOS’s sales and margins. Prices of phosphate and potash have retreated since the back half of 2022 from their peak levels attained in the first half, riding on the impacts of the Russia-Ukraine war and disruptions due to the sanctions in Belarus. Lower potash selling prices hurt the company’s sales in the fourth quarter. While prices have recovered somewhat lately, weaker year-over-year selling prices are likely to continue to have impacted the company’s top line in the first quarter.

Our estimate for average selling price per ton for the Potash segment is pegged at $209, reflecting a year-over-year decline of 29.6%. We also expect average selling price per ton for the Phosphate unit to be $609, indicating a 10% decline from the prior-year quarter.

The Mosaic Company Price and EPS Surprise

The Mosaic Company price-eps-surprise | The Mosaic Company Quote

Basic Materials Stocks That Warrant a Look

Here are some companies in the basic materials space you may want to consider as our model shows they too have the right combination of elements to post an earnings beat this quarter:

ICL Group Ltd ICL, scheduled to release earnings on May 19, has an Earnings ESP of +12.50% and carries a Zacks Rank #3. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.

The consensus estimate for ICL’s earnings for the first quarter is currently pegged at 8 cents.

IAMGOLD Corporation IAG, slated to release earnings on May 6, has an Earnings ESP of +9.96% and carries a Zacks Rank #3 at present.

The consensus mark for IAG’s first-quarter earnings is currently pegged at 10 cents.

Nutrien Ltd. NTR, scheduled to release earnings on May 7, has an Earnings ESP of +2.41%.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for NTR's earnings for the first quarter is currently pegged at 33 cents. NTR currently carries a Zacks Rank #3.

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This article originally published on Zacks Investment Research (zacks.com).

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