WPM Gears Up to Report Q1 Earnings: What's in Store for the Stock?

Wheaton Precious Metals WPM is scheduled to report first-quarter 2025 results on May 8, after market close.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Wheaton Precious Metals’ first-quarter sales is pegged at $414.98 million, indicating 39.8% growth from the prior-year quarter’s reported figure.

The consensus mark for WPM’s earnings is pegged at 50 cents per share, indicating year-over-year growth of 39%. Earnings estimates have moved up 16.3% in the past 60 days.

WPM’s Earnings Surprise History

Wheaton Precious Metals’ earnings have outpaced the consensus estimate in two of the trailing four quarters while matching twice, the average surprise being 9.48%. (Find the latest EPS estimates and surprises on Zacks Earnings Calendar.)

What the Zacks Model Unveils for Wheaton Precious Metals

Our model predicts an earnings beat for Wheaton Precious Metals this time around. The combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) increases the chances of an earnings beat. That is precisely the case here, as you can see below.

You can uncover the best stocks before they are reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.

Earnings ESP: Wheaton Precious has an Earnings ESP of +1.40%.

Zacks Rank: WPM stock currently carries a Zacks Rank of 2.

Factors Likely to Have Shaped WPM’s Q1 Performance

Wheaton Precious Metals projects an attributable production of 600,000-670,000 gold equivalent ounces (GEOs) for 2025. The mid-point of the range indicates a 10% year-over-year increase in production. This factors in higher attributable production from Antamina, the start-up of several development projects (Blackwater, Goose, Mineral Park and Platreef) and a stable forecast for Salobo production. This is expected to have been partially offset by lower production from Peñasquito and Constancia.

Our model projects Wheaton Precious Metals’ total attributable production to be 647,168 GEOS for 2025, projecting a 1.9% year-over-year rise. Our model projects WPM’s total attributable production to be 155,606 GEOs for the first quarter of 2025, accounting for 24% of the yearly total. This indicates a year-over-year decline of 2%. We expect production to be higher in the back half of the year, reflecting the contribution from the development projects. 
The abovementioned production figure includes attributable gold production of 92,438 ounces of gold (a 0.5% increase year over year).

After a record-breaking fourth-quarter 2024, production levels at Salobo are expected to have remained consistent year over year, with higher throughput levels attributable to the Salobo III expansion project anticipated to have been offset by lower gold grades. Our model projects a 0.2% year-over-year increase for the first quarter, attributable to gold production at 61,726 ounces.

Gold production at Sudbury is expected to be 8.3% lower year over year at 5,149 ounces. At Constancia, attributable gold production is projected to be 12% lower at 12,213 ounces on decreased gold grades. 

Our model projects WPM’s first-quarter gold sales volume to be 78,667 ounces, a 14.5% decline year over year. This is expected to have been offset by higher gold prices witnessed through the quarter. Gold realized prices are expected to be around $2,809 per ounce, 36% higher year over year. 

The company’s first-quarter 2025 total gold sales are projected at $221 million, a 15.9% increase year over year. Gold sales are expected to have contributed around 61% of WPM’s total sales.

Our model projects 5.22 million ounces of total attributable silver production (down 4.8% year over year). A 32% year-over-year increase at Antamina and an 8% rise in Constancia (on higher grades) are expected to have been offset by a 23% decline at Penasquito as mining moves back into the Peñasco pit, which contains lower silver grades.

Wheaton Precious Metals’ silver sales volume is expected at 4.46 million ounces. Silver realized price is expected at around $30.95 per ounce, 30% higher year over year. This is expected to lead to silver sales of $136 million, projecting a 40.7% increase year over year.  Silver sales contributed around 37% to the total sales. 

Attributable production of palladium is projected at 2,894 ounces (down 35% y/y) while production for cobalt is expected at 362.2 thousand pounds(up 51%). Other metals’ production is projected at 2,938 GEOs for the first quarter. 

Our model projects Wheaton Precious Metals to sell 132,653 GEOs in the first quarter, 7% lower than the prior-year quarter. Overall, the company’s first-quarter results are expected to reflect the gains of higher gold and silver prices, somewhat offset by lower sales volumes.

Wheaton Precious Metals Stock’s Price Performance

Shares of Wheaton Precious Metals have gained 22.6% over the past three months against the industry's 2% dip.

Other Stocks Poised to Beat Estimates

Here are some Basic Materials stocks, which according to our model, also have the right combination of elements to post an earnings beat in their upcoming releases.

Pan American Silver PAAS, slated to release first-quarter 2025 earnings on May 7, has an Earnings ESP of +3.95% and a Zacks Rank of 2. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.

The consensus mark for Pan American Silver’s revenues is $696.6 million, indicating year-over-year growth of 15.8%.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for PAAS’ earnings for the first quarter is currently pegged at 19 cents per share. The estimate indicates a significant climb from the earnings of one cent per share in the year-ago quarter. PAAS has a trailing four-quarter average earnings surprise of 35.60%.

Nutrien NTR, scheduled to release first-quarter earnings on May 7, has an Earnings ESP of +2.41% and a Zacks Rank of 3. 
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Nutrien’s revenues is $5.32 billion, indicating a year-over-year dip of 1.2%.  

Nutrien’s earnings for the first quarter are currently pegged at 33 cents per share, indicating a year-over-year decline of 28%. The company has a trailing four-quarter average earnings surprise of 5.1%.

ICL Group ICL, slated to release first-quarter 2025 earnings on May 19, has an Earnings ESP of +12.50% and a Zacks Rank of 3 at present.
The consensus mark for ICL Group’s first-quarter revenues is $1.77 billion, indicating year-over-year growth of 2%. 

The consensus mark for earnings is currently is pegged at eight cents per share. It indicates a year-over-year decline of 11%. ICL Group has a trailing four-quarter average earnings surprise of 23.61%.

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This article originally published on Zacks Investment Research (zacks.com).

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