MarketAxess to Post Q1 Earnings: Here's What to Expect From the Stock

Electronic trading platform MarketAxess Holdings Inc. MKTX is set to report first-quarter 2025 results on May 7, 2025, before the opening bell. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for the to-be-reported quarter’s earnings is currently pegged at $1.82 per share on revenues of $210.6 million. (See the Zacks Earnings Calendar to stay ahead of market-making news.)

First-quarter earnings estimates have been revised downward over the past 60 days. The bottom-line projection indicates a decrease of 5.2% from the year-ago reported number. However, the Zacks Consensus Estimate for quarterly revenues implies year-over-year growth of 0.2%.

For 2025, the Zacks Consensus Estimate for MarketAxess’ revenues is pegged at $870.2 million, implying a rise of 6.5% year over year. Also, the consensus mark for 2025 earnings per share is pegged at $7.59, indicating growth of around 4.3% on a year-over-year basis.

MarketAxess has a robust history of surpassing earnings estimates, beating the consensus estimate in each of the last four quarters, with the average surprise being 2.9%. This is depicted in the figure below.

MarketAxess Holdings Inc. Price and EPS Surprise

MarketAxess Holdings Inc. price-eps-surprise | MarketAxess Holdings Inc. Quote

Q1 Earnings Whispers for MarketAxess

However, our proven model does not conclusively predict an earnings beat for the company this time around. The combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy), or 3 (Hold) increases the odds of an earnings beat, but that is not the case here.

MKTX has an Earnings ESP of -0.41% and a Zacks Rank #3. You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they’re reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.

You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.

What is Shaping MarketAxess’ Q1 Results?

Higher trading volumes and strong estimated market share gains across several of its credit product lines are likely to have boosted credit commission revenues in the first quarter. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for the total trading volume indicates a 23.6% year-over-year increase.

Solid trading volumes in the international business of MarketAxess are expected to have driven the company’s overall commissions in the first quarter. The consensus mark for Eurobonds trading volumes indicates 15.4% growth from a year ago, while our model estimate implies a 16.5% increase. Also, the Zacks Consensus Estimate for U.S. high-grade trading volume indicates 1% year-over-year growth, whereas our estimate implies a 0.8% increase.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for commissions is pegged at $185.4 million, indicating 0.3% growth from the prior-year quarter’s reported number. Increased utilization of its data product suite and new contracts are likely to have provided an impetus to MarketAxess’ information services revenues in the to-be-reported quarter. The consensus mark for first-quarter information services revenues is pinned at $13 million, which implies a 9.3% rise from the year-ago quarter’s reported figure.

These are likely to have positioned the company for revenue growth in the first quarter. However, the upside is likely to have been partly offset by a continued decline in total credit average variable transaction fee per million. The metric is projected to witness a 6.7% decline on the platform for the first quarter.

Also, we expect total expenses to grow to around $128.1 million in the first quarter, indicating an increase of nearly 9% year over year. Higher employee compensation and benefits, technology and communications costs are likely to have increased expenses, affecting profit growth and making earnings beat uncertain.

How did Other Stocks Perform?

Here are some stocks in the broader Finance space that have already reported earnings for this quarter: Euronet Worldwide, Inc. EEFT and Virtu Financial, Inc. VIRT.

Euronet Worldwide reported first-quarter 2025 adjusted earnings per share of $1.13, which were in line with the Zacks Consensus Estimate. The quarterly results were aided by rising transaction volumes and global payment network strength. Growth in digital payments and cross-border transactions also contributed to the performance. However, the upside was partly offset by an elevated expense level and a decline in intra-U.S. transactions.

Virtu Financial reported first-quarter adjusted EPS of $1.30, which beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 9.2%, thanks to higher commissions and technology services revenues. Strong performance in both the Market Making and Execution Services segments, driven by increased trading activity, also contributed to the upside. However, the positives were partly offset by an elevated expense level.

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This article originally published on Zacks Investment Research (zacks.com).

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