Bear of the Day: Target (TGT)

Target TGT has evolved from just being a pure brick-and-mortar retailer to an omnichannel entity, modernizing its supply chain to compete with pure e-commerce players.

Analysts have taken a bearish stance on the company’s outlook, with the stock presently sporting an unfavorable Zacks Rank #5 (Strong Sell).

Let’s take a closer look at what’s been affecting the popular retailer.

Target

TGT shares have continued to struggle in 2025, down nearly 30% and widely underperforming not only the S&P 500 but many other peer retailers as well. Quarterly results have regularly brought post-earnings pressure over recent periods, with the company’s more ‘discretionary’ inventory being a major thorn in the side.

Target’s product mix is much less exposed to the grocery side relative to Walmart, for example, carrying a much less ‘staply’ nature. The company benefited massively during the pandemic era, when consumers were rapidly spending on discretionary items, but that theme has long subsided.

The weak inventory mix has been the driving force behind the stock’s plunge over recent years, down nearly 40% over the last two years. Nonetheless, the company is on deck to reveal its next set of quarterly results soon, which could turn the tide entirely.

Analysts have been bearish for the quarter to be reported, with the current $1.72 Zacks Consensus EPS estimate down more than 15% since the end of February.

Jim Lee, CFO, had this comment following the release of its Q1 results in early March –

“During February, we saw record performance around Valentines Day. However, our topline performance for the month was soft, as uncharacteristically cold weather across the U.S. affected apparel sales, and declining consumer confidence impacted our discretionary assortment overall,”

He continued –

‘Looking ahead, we expect to see a moderation in this trend as apparel sales respond to warmer weather around the country, and consumers turn to Target for upcoming seasonal moments such as the Easter holiday.  We will continue to monitor these trends and will remain appropriately cautious with our expectations for the year ahead.’

Bottom Line

Negative earnings estimate revisions, resulting from soft quarterly results and an unfavorable inventory mix, paint a challenging picture for the company’s shares in the near term.

Target TGT is a Zacks Rank #5 (Strong Sell), indicating that analysts have taken a bearish stance on the company’s earnings outlook.

For those seeking strong stocks, a great idea would be to focus on stocks carrying a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy) or a Zacks Rank #2 (Buy) – these stocks sport a notably stronger earnings outlook paired with the potential to deliver explosive gains in the near term.

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This article originally published on Zacks Investment Research (zacks.com).

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