V.F. Corp Set to Announce Q4 Results: What Should Investors Expect?

V.F. Corporation VFC is likely to register a year-over-year top-line decline when it posts fourth-quarter fiscal 2025 earnings on May 21, before the opening bell. Meanwhile, the bottom line is expected to fare better than the prior year's reported figure. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for quarterly revenues is pegged at $2.2 billion, indicating a 7.7% decline from the prior-year quarter’s reported figure.

The consensus estimate for loss is pegged at 15 cents per share, narrower than the 32 cents reported in the year-ago period. Notably, the earnings estimate has remained stable over the past 30 days.

V.F. Corp. delivered an earnings surprise of 82.4% in the last reported quarter. In the trailing four quarters, the company’s earnings missed the Zacks Consensus Estimate by a sharp margin. (Find the latest EPS estimates and surprises on Zacks Earnings Calendar.)

V.F. Corporation Price, Consensus and EPS Surprise

 

V.F. Corporation price-consensus-eps-surprise-chart | V.F. Corporation Quote

Things to Know Ahead of VFC’s Q4 Earnings

V.F. Corp is likely to face a year-over-year revenue decline in its upcoming fourth-quarter fiscal 2025 results, primarily due to several headwinds. A key factor is the pull-forward of wholesale orders into the third quarter, driven by early shipments ahead of the Lunar New Year and stronger-than-expected holiday reorders. Additionally, the company acknowledged a lighter spring order book, reflecting continued cautious sentiment among U.S. retail partners.

V.F. Corp has also been battling softness across its brands, like Vans. These brands have been experiencing weak sales and struggling to connect with their core customer bases. While restructuring efforts are underway, meaningful improvements in Vans are not expected until the back-to-school or holiday 2025 seasons. Foreign currency headwinds are also expected to weigh on fourth-quarter revenues, with management projecting a 200 basis-point negative impact. We anticipate sales at Vans and The North Face brands to decline 8.3% and 4.5%, respectively, for the said quarter.

Management, on its last earnings call, projected revenues to decline 4-6% year over year on a reported basis and 2-4% in constant currency for the fourth quarter of fiscal 2025. Adjusted operating income is projected to range from a $30 million loss to break-even, supported by improved gross margins due to lower product costs, reduced promotions and fewer reserves. Meanwhile, SG&A expenses are expected to rise slightly compared to last year, reflecting increased investments in marketing and product development.

On the flip side, VFC’s transformation program, Reinvent, which targets enhancing focus on brand-building and improving the operating performance, appears encouraging. The plan focuses on four objectives, including improving the North America performance, Vans’ turnaround, reducing costs and strengthening the balance sheet. The company has been managing costs effectively as well.

On the cost front, VFC is on track to fully implement $300 million in annual fixed cost savings by the end of fiscal 2025, with the fourth quarter seeing an additional $40 million in reductions, primarily from supply chain efficiencies and workforce restructuring. The company is deleveraging its balance sheet, having repaid debt using proceeds from divestitures, including the sale of the Supreme brand. These focused efforts are beginning to support margin improvement and stabilize earnings despite ongoing top-line pressure in the to-be-reported quarter.

What the Zacks Model Unveils for VFC Stock

Our proven model does not predict a likely earnings beat for V.F. Corp. this time around. The combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) increases the chance of an earnings beat, which is not the case here. You can uncover the best stocks before they’re reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.

V.F. Corp has an Earnings ESP of 0.00% and currently carries a Zacks Rank of 3.

Valuation Picture of VFC Stock

V.F. Corp stock is trading at a premium valuation relative to the industry. Going by the price/earnings ratio, the stock is currently trading at 13.85X on a forward 12-month basis, higher than the 12.59X of the Textile - Apparel industry. Also, it is trading higher than its median of 20.96X.

The recent market movements show that VFC shares have gained 12.4% in the past year against the industry's decline of 1.9%.

VFC Stock's Price Performance

Stocks With the Favorable Combination

Here are some companies that, according to our model, have the right combination of elements to beat on earnings this reporting cycle.
 
Ralph Lauren RL currently has an Earnings ESP of +2.72% and a Zacks Rank of 3. RL is likely to register a top-line increase when it reports fourth-quarter fiscal 2025 results. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for its quarterly revenues is pegged at $1.63 billion, indicating a 4.1% rise from the figure reported in the prior-year quarter.

You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.

The consensus estimate for Ralph Lauren’s earnings is pegged at $1.96 per share, implying a 14.6% jump from the year-ago quarter. RL delivered an earnings surprise of 6.5% in the last quarter.

Gap GAP has an Earnings ESP of +5.58% and a Zacks Rank of 3 at present. GAP is likely to register top-line growth when it releases first-quarter 2025 results. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for its quarterly revenues is pegged at $3.42 billion, which implies growth of 0.8% from the figure reported in the year-ago quarter.

The consensus estimate for GAP’s quarterly earnings has increased by a penny in the past 30 days to 44 cents per share, implying growth of 7.3% from the year-ago quarter’s number. GAP delivered an earnings surprise of 77.5%, on average, in the trailing four quarters.

American Eagle Outfitters Inc. AEO currently has an Earnings ESP of +9.09% and a Zacks Rank of 3. AEO is likely to register a top-line decline when it releases first-quarter 2025 results. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for its quarterly revenues is pegged at $1.08 billion, which implies a decline of 5.30% from the figure reported in the year-ago quarter.

The consensus estimate for AEO’s quarterly earnings has remained flat in the past 30 days at 11 cents per share, implying a dip of 67.7% from the year-ago quarter’s number. AEO delivered an earnings surprise of 9.1%, on average, in the trailing four quarters.

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This article originally published on Zacks Investment Research (zacks.com).

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