What's in the Cards for ZTO Express Stock in Q1 Earnings?

ZTO Express ZTO is scheduled to report first-quarter 2025 results on May 20, after market close.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for ZTO’s earnings for the soon-to-be-reported quarter has remained flat at 47 cents per share over the past 60 days. Meanwhile, the Zacks Consensus Estimate for revenues is pegged at $1.67 billion, which indicates a rise of 21% year over year.

ZTO Express (Cayman) Inc. Price and EPS Surprise

ZTO Express (Cayman) Inc. price-eps-surprise | ZTO Express (Cayman) Inc. Quote

Given this backdrop, let’s see how things have shaped up for ZTO Express this earnings season.

High operating expenses are likely to have hurt the company’s bottom-line performance in the to-be-reported quarter, as the company has a brief history of increasing expenses. Top-line growth is expected to have been driven by impressive parcel volumes, with the performance of the express delivery services unit likely to have been impressive.

ZTO Express now expects its 2025 parcel volume guidance in the range of 40.8 billion-42.2 billion. The updated guidance represents an increase of 20-24% year over year. The ongoing trade war between the United States and China is also anticipated to have an impact on the to-be-reported quarter’s results. An update on the same is also expected at the first-quarter conference.

Moreover, revenues from ZTO’s freight forwarding services unit are expected to have been hurt by freight demand weakness. An update on the ongoing trade war between the United States and China is also expected at the first-quarter conference.

What Our Model Says About ZTO

Our proven model does not conclusively predict an earnings beat for ZTO Express this time. The combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) increases the odds of an earnings beat. However, that’s not the case here. You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they’re reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.

ZTO Express has an Earnings ESP of 0.00% and a Zacks Rank #3. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks.

Highlights of Q4 Earnings

ZTOExpress reported mixed fourth-quarter 2024 results. The company’s earnings missed the Zacks Consensus Estimate, while revenues surpassed the mark. Quarterly earnings of 44 cents per share missed the Zacks Consensus Estimate of 46 cents. However, the bottom line improved year over year.

Total revenues of $1.77 billion surpassed the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $1.65 billion and improved year over year.

Q1 Performances of Other Transportation Companies

United Airlines’ UAL first-quarter 2025 earnings per share (excluding 25 cents from non-recurring items) of 91 cents surpassed the Zacks Consensus Estimate of 75 cents. In the year-ago quarter, the Chicago-based airline reported a loss of 15 cents per share. 

Operating revenues of $13.21 billion fell marginally short of the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $13.22 billion. The top line increased 5.4% year over year despite the tariff-induced slowdown in domestic air travel demand. Passenger revenues (which accounted for 89.7% of the top line) rose 4.8% to $11.9 billion. The actual figure was short of our passenger revenue estimate of $12.5 billion. UAL flights transported 40,806 passengers in the first quarter, up 3.8% year over year.

Delta Air Lines DAL reported first-quarter 2025 earnings (excluding 9 cents from non-recurring items) of 46 cents per share, which surpassed the Zacks Consensus Estimate of 40 cents. Earnings increased 2.2% on a year-over-year basis due to low fuel costs.

Revenues in the March-end quarter were $14.04 billion, surpassing the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $13.81 billion and increasing 2.1% on a year-over-year basis. Adjusted operating revenues (excluding third-party refinery sales) rose 3.3% year over year to $13 billion.

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This article originally published on Zacks Investment Research (zacks.com).

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