Infrastructure consulting service company AECOM (NYSE:ACM) missed Wall Street’s revenue expectations in Q1 CY2025, with sales falling 4.4% year on year to $3.77 billion. Its non-GAAP profit of $1.25 per share was 4.8% above analysts’ consensus estimates.
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AECOM (ACM) Q1 CY2025 Highlights:
- Revenue: $3.77 billion vs analyst estimates of $4.17 billion (4.4% year-on-year decline, 9.5% miss)
- Adjusted EPS: $1.25 vs analyst estimates of $1.19 (4.8% beat)
- Adjusted EBITDA: $289.7 million vs analyst estimates of $287.2 million (7.7% margin, 0.9% beat)
- Management slightly raised its full-year Adjusted EPS guidance to $5.15 at the midpoint
- EBITDA guidance for the full year is $1.2 billion at the midpoint, in line with analyst expectations
- Operating Margin: 6.8%, up from 5.1% in the same quarter last year
- Free Cash Flow Margin: 4.7%, up from 1.9% in the same quarter last year
- Backlog: $24.27 billion at quarter end, up 2.2% year on year
- Market Capitalization: $14.44 billion
StockStory’s Take
AECOM’s first quarter results reflected management’s emphasis on margin expansion and strategic focus within higher-value advisory and program management services. CEO Troy Rudd acknowledged that isolated project delays and fewer workdays weighed on sales, but pointed to ongoing investments in technical expertise, business development, and operational efficiencies as key contributors to improved profitability. Rudd highlighted that “our margins were strong in the quarter and have increased by 70 basis points year-to-date,” attributing the gains to a growing share of higher-margin work and benefits from previous restructuring initiatives.
Looking ahead, management raised its full-year non-GAAP EPS guidance, citing confidence in backlog growth and visibility into future project pipelines. Rudd expressed that the company’s backlog reached a record high and that “we expect our revenue would ramp over the year” as delayed projects resume and new wins flow through. While acknowledging some macroeconomic uncertainty, management emphasized that the pipeline of early-stage opportunities and the company’s ability to shift resources position AECOM for further growth.
Key Insights from Management’s Remarks
AECOM’s management discussed several underlying factors shaping Q1 performance and their outlook for the remainder of the year, emphasizing margin improvements, strategic investments, and differentiated market positioning.
- Margin Expansion Initiatives: The quarter’s operating margin improvement was attributed to higher contributions from advisory and program management offerings, alongside efficiency gains from enterprise capability centers and ongoing digital and AI initiatives.
- Project Delays and Pipeline Health: Management cited isolated project delays and deferred client decisions, particularly following U.S. federal agency reviews and administrative changes, as short-term revenue headwinds. However, they stressed that these delays were limited in scope and did not materially impact the overall backlog.
- Backlog and Book-to-Burn Ratio: The company achieved a record backlog with a book-to-burn ratio above 1.1, reflecting continued success in winning new contracts. Management noted that win rates on large pursuits remained above 80%, and early-stage pipeline activity accelerated, supporting future growth.
- Geographic and Segment Trends: The Americas region drove most of the margin improvement, while international results were mixed—U.K. water sector investment and Canadian infrastructure spending were bright spots, but transportation project delays persisted in some markets.
- Strategic Acquisitions and Market Entry: The acquisition of Allen Gordon, a U.K.-based water and energy consultancy, was highlighted as a move to strengthen the company’s position in energy and water markets, particularly within the U.K. and Ireland, and to support targeted revenue doubling goals in global water services.
Drivers of Future Performance
Management’s outlook for the year is grounded in expectations of continued margin expansion, resilience in advisory and program management demand, and steady backlog conversion, while remaining mindful of lingering project timing risks and mixed regional trends.
- Backlog Conversion and Pipeline Visibility: Management expects record backlog levels and a growing early-stage pipeline to support revenue growth, particularly as delayed projects in the U.S. and select international markets resume.
- Shift Toward Higher-Margin Services: The company’s focus on expanding advisory and program management offerings is expected to drive both top-line growth and further margin gains, given these services’ higher profitability compared to legacy design work.
- Operational and Macroeconomic Risks: Management acknowledged that further project delays, particularly tied to public sector client transitions and regulatory changes, could impact near-term results, but highlighted workforce flexibility and diversified funding sources as mitigating factors.
Top Analyst Questions
- Michael Feniger (Bank of America): Asked about the confidence behind the outlook for double-digit EBITDA growth in the second half. Management explained that both top-line improvement from resuming projects and ongoing margin expansion are expected to contribute.
- Sabahat Khan (RBC Capital Markets): Pressed for details on private sector exposure and its cyclicality. Management clarified that most private work is regulatory-driven in water and environment, making it less sensitive to economic cycles.
- Andy Kaplowitz (Citigroup): Inquired about the drivers behind strong margin expansion in the Americas and future investment plans. Management pointed to multi-year investments in advisory, program management, and capability centers, as well as continued business development.
- Adam Bubes (Goldman Sachs): Asked for more detail on margin differentials between services and implications for future profitability. Management indicated advisory margins are higher than design margins, supporting the company’s focus on mix shift.
- Jamie Cook (Truist Securities): Sought clarification on international margin trajectory and whether margin targets could be raised relative to top-line growth goals. Management emphasized the value of disciplined growth over maximizing revenue at the expense of profitability.
Catalysts in Upcoming Quarters
Looking ahead, the StockStory team will watch (1) the pace at which delayed U.S. and international projects resume and flow into revenue, (2) the company’s ability to continue expanding its advisory and program management mix, and (3) whether margin gains persist amid ongoing investments and shifting market dynamics. Progress on integrating recent acquisitions and maintaining high win rates on large contract pursuits will also be key indicators of execution.
AECOM currently trades at a forward P/E ratio of 21.3×. Should you load up, cash out, or stay put? Find out in our free research report.
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