Arch Capital Trades Above 50-Day SMA: Time to Hold ACGL Stock?

Arch Capital Group Ltd. ACGL has been trading above its 50-day simple moving average (SMA), signaling a short-term bullish trend. Its share price as of Friday was $94.59, down 18.7% from its 52-week high of $116.47.

The 50-day SMA is a key indicator for traders and analysts to identify support and resistance levels. It is considered particularly important as this is the first marker of an uptrend or downtrend.

ACGL Price Movement vs. 50-Day Moving Average

ACGL’s Price Performance

Arch Capital shares have gained 2.4% in the past year, underperforming its industry and the Finance sector’s growth of 12.8% and 6.3%, respectively. It, however, outperformed the Zacks S&P 500 composite’s return of 0.6%.

ACGL Lags Industry and Sector, Outperforms S&P 500 in 1 Year

ACGL’s Expensive Valuation

Based on the forward 12-month price-to-book ratio, ACGL is currently trading at 1.72X, above its industry average of 1.58X. The insurer has a Value Score of B. Shares of The Travelers Companies, Inc. TRV and Cincinnati Financial Corporation CINF are also trading at a multiple higher than the industry average, while NMI Holdings Inc. NMIH shares are trading at a discount.

Return on Capital of ACGL

Arch Capital’s trailing 12-month return on equity is 15.7%, ahead of the industry average of 7.8%. Return on equity, a profitability measure, reflects how effectively a company is utilizing its shareholders. 

ACGL Growth Projection

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Arch Capital’s 2025 revenues is pegged at $18.88 billion, implying a year-over-year improvement of 13.5%. 

The consensus estimate for 2026 earnings per share and revenues indicates a year-over-year increase of 20.3% and 5.8%, respectively, from the corresponding 2025 estimates. Earnings have grown 33.5% in the past five years, better than the industry average of 18.9%.

Earnings Surprise History

Arch Capital surpassed earnings estimates in each of the last four quarters, the average being 13.93%. 

Key Points to Note for ACGL Stock

Widespread operations, coupled with a compelling product portfolio, provide meaningful diversification and earnings stability to ACGL. 
Arch Capital has made significant efforts to boost its inorganic growth through prudent acquisitions. These, in turn, aided international expansion, enhance operations and diversify business at attractive risk-adjusted returns. 

Solid performances at the Insurance as well as the Reinsurance business are well complemented by the Mortgage Insurance. Premiums should benefit from new business opportunities, rate increases, and growth in existing accounts.

Investment results are set to benefit from a growing base of invested assets, driven by improving cash flows.

Sufficient liquidity, coupled with low leverage, has helped ACGL strengthen its balance. It also shields it from market volatility and supports growth initiatives. 

Notably, its free cash flow conversion has remained more than 85% over the last many quarters, reflecting its solid earnings.

Final Take on ACGL Stock

Arch Capital boasts a strong product portfolio and has a solid track record of premium growth. Both the Insurance and Reinsurance segments should continue to witness significant growth from increases in most lines of business. A robust capital position over the years reflects its financial flexibility. 

The stock also has a VGM Score of B. VGM Score helps identify stocks with the most attractive value, best growth and the most promising momentum.

However, given its expensive valuation, it is better to wait for some more time before taking a call on this Zacks Rank #3 (Hold) stock. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank (Strong Buy) stocks here.

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This article originally published on Zacks Investment Research (zacks.com).

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