What Analyst Projections for Key Metrics Reveal About Ulta (ULTA) Q1 Earnings

By Zacks Equity Research | May 23, 2025, 9:15 AM

Wall Street analysts forecast that Ulta Beauty (ULTA) will report quarterly earnings of $5.75 per share in its upcoming release, pointing to a year-over-year decline of 11.1%. It is anticipated that revenues will amount to $2.79 billion, exhibiting an increase of 2.2% compared to the year-ago quarter.

The current level reflects an upward revision of 0.3% in the consensus EPS estimate for the quarter over the past 30 days. This demonstrates how the analysts covering the stock have collectively reappraised their initial projections over this period.

Before a company announces its earnings, it is essential to take into account any changes made to earnings estimates. This is a valuable factor in predicting the potential reactions of investors toward the stock. Empirical research has consistently shown a strong correlation between trends in earnings estimate revisions and the short-term price performance of a stock.

While investors usually depend on consensus earnings and revenue estimates to assess the business performance for the quarter, delving into analysts' forecasts for certain key metrics often provides a more comprehensive understanding.

With that in mind, let's delve into the average projections of some Ulta metrics that are commonly tracked and projected by analysts on Wall Street.

The collective assessment of analysts points to an estimated 'Total stores open at end of the quarter' of 1,458. Compared to the current estimate, the company reported 1,395 in the same quarter of the previous year.

Analysts expect 'Total gross square feet at end of the quarter' to come in at 15,224.74 Msq ft. The estimate compares to the year-ago value of 14,614.76 Msq ft.

It is projected by analysts that the 'Number of stores opened during the quarter' will reach 14. Compared to the present estimate, the company reported 12 in the same quarter last year.

Analysts predict that the 'Total stores open at beginning of the quarter' will reach 1,445. The estimate is in contrast to the year-ago figure of 1,385.

The average prediction of analysts places 'Net Sales by Primary Category - Services' at 4.0%. Compared to the present estimate, the company reported 4% in the same quarter last year.

The consensus among analysts is that 'Net Sales by Primary Category - Fragrance' will reach 11.5%. The estimate compares to the year-ago value of 10%.

According to the collective judgment of analysts, 'Net Sales by Primary Category - Haircare' should come in at 19.0%. Compared to the current estimate, the company reported 19% in the same quarter of the previous year.

Based on the collective assessment of analysts, 'Net Sales by Primary Category - Cosmetics' should arrive at 40.5%. Compared to the current estimate, the company reported 42% in the same quarter of the previous year.

View all Key Company Metrics for Ulta here>>>

Over the past month, shares of Ulta have returned +6.3% versus the Zacks S&P 500 composite's +10.7% change. Currently, ULTA carries a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold), suggesting that its performance may align with the overall market in the near future. You can see the complete list of today's Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy) stocks here >>>>

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