AGNC Investment Thrives on Portfolio Management Amid Market Volatility

AGNC Investment Corp. AGNC continues to navigate the evolving financial landscape with an active portfolio management strategy, leveraging interest rate hedges and strategic asset repositioning to mitigate risks. While the company has maintained a solid liquidity position, challenges such as market volatility and yield curve fluctuations remain key factors influencing its performance.

AGNC’s Growth Drivers

Strong Portfolio Management: AGNC Investment adheres to an active portfolio-management policy, continuously re-evaluating and adjusting its holdings to optimize returns. The company is operating in a more defensive position with significant hedge protection due to market volatility. As of March 31, 2025, the company-maintained interest rate hedges covering 91% of its investment securities, reinforcing its defensive stance against market uncertainties. Additionally, AGNC has trimmed non-agency holdings and increased exposure to higher-coupon securities, aiming for greater stability in cash flows.

Agency MBS Investments Driving Returns: The company’s investment in Agency mortgage-backed securities (MBS) continues to drive attractive risk-adjusted returns, supported by government-sponsored enterprise guarantees on principal and interest payments. With $77.9 billion in Agency MBS holdings, AGNC is positioned to capitalize on spread-widening opportunities in the fixed-income market.

Stable Financial Position: AGNC displays a decent financial position. The company’s liquidity position remains strong, with $6 billion in unencumbered cash and Agency MBS, providing flexibility for future investments. The company’s leverage increased modestly to 7.5X at the end of the first quarter (from 7.2X in the prior quarter). Operating at a conservative leverage level, in anticipation of any spread widening, will enable the company to deploy capital in investment opportunities in the upcoming period.

Impressive ROE: The company’s return on equity (ROE) of 20.36% compares favorably with the industry average of 7.82%, indicating its superiority in managing shareholders’ funds.

Challenges for AGNC

Volatile Mortgage Market: The performance of mortgage REITs is influenced by the overall financial markets and economic conditions. Factors like mortgage market volatility, changes in the yield curve, interest-rate fluctuations, and worsening financial conditions can impact investment performance. In recent years, the financial markets have seen high volatility. In response to market challenges, the company cut its dividend by 25% in 2020 and has continued to maintain that amount.

Fluctuating Interest Rates: The company is changing its investment portfolio to sync with current interest rates and the global economy. The company is cutting its portfolio size by reducing Agency RMBS due to the Federal Reserve's actions and market volatility. It focuses on managing risk and liquidity and reducing leverage, but expects strong returns to be difficult in the short term. Further, AGNC Investment uses hedging strategies to manage interest rate changes, but these do not protect against shifts in tangible net book value from spread changes with benchmark rates. 

AGNC’s Price Performance & Zacks Rank

Over the past month, shares of the company have risen 3.1% compared with the industry’s growth of 4.3%.

AGNC currently carries a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold).

AGNC’s Peer Stocks Worth Considering

Some better-ranked stocks worth a look are Ares Commercial Real Estate ACRE and DigitalBridge Group DBRG, each sporting a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy) at present. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.

Estimates for ACRE’s current-year earnings have been revised upward in the past 30 days. The company’s shares have risen 13.3% over the past month.

Estimates for DBRG’s current-year earnings have remained unchanged for the past 30 days. The company’s shares have gained 33.6% over the past month.

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This article originally published on Zacks Investment Research (zacks.com).

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