Krispy Kreme (DNUT): Buy, Sell, or Hold Post Q1 Earnings?

What a brutal six months it’s been for Krispy Kreme. The stock has dropped 73.8% and now trades at $2.85, rattling many shareholders. This was partly driven by its softer quarterly results and may have investors wondering how to approach the situation.

Is there a buying opportunity in Krispy Kreme, or does it present a risk to your portfolio? Check out our in-depth research report to see what our analysts have to say, it’s free.

Why Do We Think Krispy Kreme Will Underperform?

Despite the more favorable entry price, we're sitting this one out for now. Here are three reasons why we avoid DNUT and a stock we'd rather own.

1. EPS Trending Down

We track the change in earnings per share (EPS) because it highlights whether a company’s growth is profitable.

Krispy Kreme’s full-year EPS dropped all the way to $0.00 over the last three years. We tend to steer our readers away from companies with falling EPS, especially restaurants, which are arguably some of the hardest businesses to manage because of constantly changing consumer tastes, input costs, and labor dynamics. If the tide turns unexpectedly, Krispy Kreme’s low margin of safety could leave its stock price susceptible to large downswings.

2. Cash Burn Ignites Concerns

Free cash flow isn't a prominently featured metric in company financials and earnings releases, but we think it's telling because it accounts for all operating and capital expenses, making it tough to manipulate. Cash is king.

Over the last two years, Krispy Kreme’s capital-intensive business model and large investments in new physical locations have drained its resources, putting it in a pinch and limiting its ability to return capital to investors. Its free cash flow margin averaged negative 5.5%, meaning it lit $5.48 of cash on fire for every $100 in revenue.

3. Short Cash Runway Exposes Shareholders to Potential Dilution

As long-term investors, the risk we care about most is the permanent loss of capital, which can happen when a company goes bankrupt or raises money from a disadvantaged position. This is separate from short-term stock price volatility, something we are much less bothered by.

Krispy Kreme burned through $74.92 million of cash over the last year, and its $1.45 billion of debt exceeds the $19.17 million of cash on its balance sheet. This is a deal breaker for us because indebted loss-making companies spell trouble.

Unless the Krispy Kreme’s fundamentals change quickly, it might find itself in a position where it must raise capital from investors to continue operating. Whether that would be favorable is unclear because dilution is a headwind for shareholder returns.

We remain cautious of Krispy Kreme until it generates consistent free cash flow or any of its announced financing plans materialize on its balance sheet.

Final Judgment

Krispy Kreme falls short of our quality standards. Following the recent decline, the stock trades at 28.3× forward P/E (or $2.85 per share). This valuation multiple is fair, but we don’t have much confidence in the company. There are better investments elsewhere. Let us point you toward the most entrenched endpoint security platform on the market.

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