Palantir Stock Soars 69% Year to Date: Time to Hold or Chase?

Palantir Technologies Inc. PLTR has surged 69% year to date, eclipsing the industry’s modest 13% average and outshining heavyweights like Nvidia NVDA and Oracle ORCL.

Nvidia, a leading force in AI and graphics processing technology, has recorded a 6% gain so far this year. Similarly, Oracle, renowned for its enterprise software and cloud infrastructure services, has gained 5% year to date.

In a macroeconomic landscape that has left many tech giants limping, Palantir’s relentless rally stands out, but does this pace leave any meaningful upside for new investors?

While Nvidia continues wrestling with cyclical demand and Oracle faces pressure on its cloud transition pace, Palantir is thriving by doubling down on artificial intelligence and data-centric enterprise software. The key question now: Is this AI darling still a buy, or has the market already priced in perfection?

Explosive AIP Adoption Fuels PLTR’s Growth

The backbone of Palantir’s recent success is its Artificial Intelligence Platform (AIP), which is rapidly transforming into the company’s biggest commercial catalyst. U.S. commercial revenues skyrocketed 71% year over year and 19% sequentially in the first quarter of 2025, pushing the annual run rate past the $1 billion mark for the first time.

Total contract value in this segment skyrocketed 239% YoY, with deal sizes proliferating, more than double the number of $1 million contracts closed compared to last year. The rising popularity of AIP bootcamps — short, targeted training sessions for enterprise AI deployment — is a major driver. These bootcamps reduce implementation timelines and showcase AIP’s plug-and-play value, helping customers scale AI operations faster than ever.

Palantir’s flexible, modular sales model allows clients to start small with specific components, further lowering adoption friction. Combined with usage-based pricing, this strategy has broadened Palantir’s reach in the U.S. commercial sector, making AI integration more accessible and scalable for new clients.

PLTR’s Balance Sheet Strength Bolsters Confidence

As of March 31, 2025, Palantir boasted $5.4 billion in cash and no debt. This fortress balance sheet gives the company strategic flexibility to reinvest in growth without external financing pressures.

Revenue growth remains robust—first quarter sales soared 39.3% YoY. Deal momentum is equally encouraging with Palantir closing 139 deals of at least $1 million, 51 deals of at least $5 million and 31 deals of at least $10 million in the quarter.

PLTR’s Earnings Momentum Remains Strong

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for second-quarter 2025 EPS stands at 14 cents, up 55.6% from a year ago. Full-year earnings are projected to grow 44% in 2025 and 25% in 2026.

Sales estimates are equally bullish, with 38% expected growth in the second quarter and full-year top-line increases of 37% and 28% for 2025 and 2026, respectively.

Valuation: Palantir's Biggest Headwind

Despite its strong fundamentals, PLTR’s valuation is hard to ignore. Its forward P/E ratio of 197 dwarfs the industry average of 40. This lofty premium reflects high expectations around future AI monetization and government contracts. While the growth story is compelling, the stock is priced for near-flawless execution, leaving minimal margin for error.

Such a valuation exposes the stock to heightened volatility, especially if earnings or guidance falter in any quarter. Investors must weigh long-term promise against short-term risk.

Verdict: Hold Your Ground, Don’t Overextend

Palantir is proving itself as a real contender in AI-powered enterprise solutions. It has the momentum, the product-market fit, and the financial strength to keep growing. But the current price likely already reflects much of this optimism.

While long-term investors should hold onto their positions, chasing the stock at these levels could prove risky. A better entry point may emerge after a pullback and valuation reset.

PLTR currently carries a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold). You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank (Strong Buy) stocks here.

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This article originally published on Zacks Investment Research (zacks.com).

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