ABR Q1 Deep Dive: Elevated Delinquencies and REO Drag Results, Management Eyes 2026 Recovery

Real estate investment trust Arbor Realty Trust (NYSE:ABR) missed Wall Street’s revenue expectations in Q1 CY2025, with sales falling 16.5% year on year to $134.2 million. Its non-GAAP profit of $0.28 per share was 5.1% below analysts’ consensus estimates.

Is now the time to buy ABR? Find out in our full research report (it’s free).

StockStory’s Take

Arbor Realty Trust’s first quarter results were met with a negative market reaction, as revenue and non-GAAP earnings per share both fell short of Wall Street expectations. Management attributed the underperformance to continued headwinds from elevated interest rates and persistent delinquencies within the loan portfolio. CEO Ivan Kaufman explained, “REO assets will temporarily create the greatest drag on our earnings,” noting that repositioning these underperforming assets is a key focus. CFO Paul Elenio highlighted that the challenging origination climate, particularly in the agency business, also weighed on quarterly results.

Looking ahead, management views 2025 as a transitional year, emphasizing that future performance will largely depend on the pace of resolving non-performing loans and the interest rate environment. Kaufman stated, “If rates come down sooner than we expect, we will have a positive impact on our ability to convert non-interest earning assets into income producing investments.” The company expects that successful resolution of real estate owned (REO) assets and delinquencies, combined with potential improvements in market rates, could position Arbor Realty Trust for stronger earnings and dividend growth in 2026.

Key Insights from Management’s Remarks

Management cited asset quality challenges, a volatile interest rate environment, and a strategic focus on liquidity and portfolio repositioning as key themes impacting first quarter performance and the outlook for the remainder of the year.

• REO and Delinquency Challenges: Elevated levels of real estate owned (REO) assets and loan delinquencies persisted, with management acknowledging these as the primary drag on earnings. Kaufman described plans to aggressively reposition and liquidate underperforming assets, estimating it could take 12-24 months for many to return to income-producing status.
• Balance Sheet Deleveraging: The company continued its strategy of reducing leverage, now at a 2.8 to 1 ratio, down from 4.0 to 1 prior to the market dislocation. CFO Elenio stressed that maintaining lower leverage helps the company manage through ongoing uncertainty and positions Arbor to increase leverage opportunistically as market conditions improve.
• CLO Market and Funding Efficiencies: Arbor executed a $1.1 billion repurchase facility with JPMorgan, providing improved funding terms and liquidity. Management highlighted continued access to the collateralized loan obligation (CLO) market, noting these vehicles offer non-recourse, long-term funding to support new loan production.
• Origination Volatility: Agency origination volumes were slow in the first quarter due to interest rate volatility, but management reported a strengthening pipeline as rates moderated. Kaufman pointed to a recovery in forward deal flow, with the pipeline rising to $2 billion from $1.2 billion earlier in the year.
• Single-Family Rental and Construction Lending Expansion: The company continues to grow its single-family rental (SFR) and construction lending segments, with strong pipelines cited for both. Management sees these businesses as important for diversifying income streams and supporting long-term growth.

Drivers of Future Performance

Management expects future performance to hinge on resolving legacy asset challenges and capitalizing on improvements in loan origination markets, particularly if interest rates decline.

• Resolution of REO and Delinquencies: The pace of transitioning non-performing loans and REO assets into performing, income-generating properties is seen as the single largest driver for near-term earnings. Management estimates this process could take up to two years, with heavy lifting required to improve occupancy and net operating income (NOI) on distressed assets.
• Interest Rate Sensitivity: Arbor’s origination and loan sales volumes are highly sensitive to changes in market interest rates. Management noted that even modest rate declines have already led to a meaningful increase in the origination pipeline, suggesting that further rate relief could accelerate business activity and earnings.
• Funding and Liquidity Management: Continued access to efficient, non-recourse funding through the CLO market and constructive banking relationships is expected to support new loan production and balance sheet growth. Management plans to selectively increase leverage as conditions normalize, further supporting earnings growth.

Catalysts in Upcoming Quarters

In the upcoming quarters, our team will be monitoring (1) the pace at which Arbor Realty Trust resolves its REO assets and reduces loan delinquencies, (2) changes in interest rates and their impact on loan origination pipelines, and (3) the company’s ability to access attractive funding through CLOs and bank facilities. Progress on these fronts will be critical for assessing Arbor’s return to earnings growth.

Arbor Realty Trust currently trades at $10.30, down from $11.06 just before the earnings. In the wake of this quarter, is it a buy or sell? The answer lies in our full research report (it’s free).

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