Tesla: The Next Month Could Make or Break the Year

After rallying more than 50% from April’s lows, Tesla Inc. (NASDAQ: TSLA) looks like it’s at a crossroads. The tech giant's shares are trading near $325, having given back much of the 10% gains it started the week with. While its bulls remain confident, the next few weeks could define how Tesla performs for the rest of the year and whether this latest rally becomes another breakout or simply a blip.

Signs of a Top, or Just a Breather for TSLA?

It has to be said that Tesla’s uptrend since April has been nothing short of impressive. Much of the momentum came from CEO Elon Musk committing to spending more time at Tesla and less time at the White House, and growing excitement around the company’s AI-powered robotaxi plans.

But after a powerful move higher, Tesla’s chart is now starting to show some cracks. The stock has failed to push through its late-May high and recently came dangerously close to setting a lower low. Technically, this places Tesla at a critical inflection point. If shares can’t hold above support and confirm the uptrend in the coming weeks, the next leg may be down. That said, the bulls have plenty of reasons to stay confident. 

Analysts Are Still Betting Big on Tesla 

While some investors may be becoming cautious and nervous, many top analysts are doubling down on their bullish outlook for Tesla. Earlier this month, the Wedbush team reiterated its Outperform rating while giving the stock a fresh $500 price target, implying more than 50% upside from current levels.

In their view, Tesla is on the cusp of a major valuation surge, with analyst Dan Ive writing in a note that “we believe the march to a $2 trillion valuation for Tesla has now begun”. 

The team at Piper Sandler echoed that view, maintaining their bullish stance and $400 price target, also calling the company one of the best-positioned players in the next wave of automotive and AI disruption.

These endorsements carry weight for a stock like Tesla, which still evokes strong reactions, particularly as retail and institutional investors weigh their positioning ahead of the next earnings report.

Robotaxi Momentum Builds, But Not Everyone’s Convinced

There’s also a fresh tailwind emerging in the form of Tesla’s robotaxi rollout. This kicked off in Austin on Monday and immediately sparked a sharp 10% gain, marking one of the company’s better single-day moves of the year, but the excitement didn’t last long. 

On the same day, UBS and Guggenheim reiterated their Sell ratings, adding a layer of skepticism that has clearly made investors skittish. Interestingly, UBS actually increased its price target as part of the update, a sign they’re becoming less bearish, but at the same time, warned that Tesla’s current valuation already bakes in much of the upside. 

They estimate that Tesla’s robotaxi business alone could be worth $99 per share, yet believe the stock is more than fully valued at its current market cap, with a frothy-looking P/E ratio that’s currently close to 180.

All Eyes on the Next Few Weeks

Still, Tesla is due to report earnings again in late July, and this will act as a key catalyst for investors. This means there are about four weeks to digest the latest developments, from analyst upgrades and sell ratings to momentum shifts and market sentiment changes.

Given the stock’s recent volatility, it wouldn’t be surprising to see a big move in either direction once earnings land.

The case for the upside is compelling. Tesla seems to have regained its edge, and Musk appears more focused than in months. Analysts are publishing bullish targets that imply serious near-term upside, and the broader market environment remains risk-on.

But cracks in the technicals, combined with fresh sell-side skepticism, mean this name needs to keep impressing—and fast.

Tesla has always been a stock that likes to keep investors on their toes, and it doesn’t appear ready to change anytime soon.

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The article "Tesla: The Next Month Could Make or Break the Year" first appeared on MarketBeat.