Balanced Take on POST's FY25 EBITDA Outlook: Will It Hit the Target?

Post Holdings, Inc. POST modestly raised its full-year fiscal 2025 adjusted EBITDA guidance during the most recent earnings call, projecting the metric to be in the range of $1.43 billion to $1.47 billion, up from the prior estimated range of $1.42 billion to $1.46 billion. This development stands out as a key signal amid persistent industry and macroeconomic headwinds. The guidance raise reflects management’s confidence in recovering previously incurred costs related to avian influenza within its Foodservice segment, a $30 million headwind now anticipated to be recouped by fiscal year-end.

The earnings call made clear that pricing adjustments instituted in April are expected to backfill earlier cost pressures from the fiscal second quarter related to avian influenza, assuming no further outbreaks. The Foodservice team prioritized maintaining customer supply throughout the disruption, even as it navigated elevated egg costs. This approach highlights Post’s operational focus on protecting relationships while executing price-cost alignment to stabilize margins in the second half of fiscal 2025.

Volume across key categories such as cereal, pet food and refrigerated retail remains challenged, with continued softness in consumer consumption. Instead, the guidance revision underscores POST’s reliance on execution levers, price realization, cost discipline and supply-chain stabilization to support profitability in a volatile environment.

In this context, the EBITDA guidance increase sends a signal of internal momentum, particularly in supply-constrained categories like eggs and refrigerated sides, where the company has historically faced restrictions. However, investors should remain cautious. The revised guidance is contingent upon the containment of avian influenza and sustained pricing power. Any disruption to these assumptions could jeopardize the anticipated recovery.

Still, in an industry where many peers are revising downward or holding flat due to demand erosion and margin compression, the company’s ability to revise its forecast upward, however slightly, indicates a differentiated level of execution. The outlook positions the company as better equipped to weather volatility and stabilize earnings despite ongoing top-line pressure.

Post Holdings’ Zacks Rank & Share Price Performance

Shares of this Zacks Rank #3 (Hold) company have lost 5.8% in the past three months compared with the industry’s 5.1% decline. POST underperformed the broader Consumer Staples sector’s decline of 0.4% and the S&P 500 index’s growth of 9.4%, during the same period.

POST Stock's Past 3-Month Performance

Is POST a Value Play Stock?

Post Holdings currently trades at a forward 12-month P/E ratio of 14.84, which is slightly below the industry average of 15.69 and notably down from the sector average of 17.31. This valuation positions the stock at a modest discount relative to both its direct peers and the broader consumer staples sector.

POST P/E Ratio (Forward 12 Months)

Some Solid Bets

BRF S.A. BRFS raises, produces and slaughters poultry and pork for the processing, production and sale of fresh meat, processed products, pasta, margarine, pet food and other products. It currently carries a Zacks Rank #2 (Buy). You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank (Strong Buy) stocks here.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for BRF S.A.'s current fiscal-year sales and earnings implies growth of 11.1% and 8.3%, respectively, from the prior-year levels. BRFS delivered a trailing four-quarter earnings surprise of 5.4%, on average.

Mondelez International MDLZ manufactures, markets and sells snack food and beverage products. It presently has a Zacks Rank of 2. MDLZ delivered a trailing four-quarter earnings surprise of 9.8%, on average.

The consensus estimate for Mondelez’s current fiscal-year sales implies growth of 5.3% from the year-ago figures.

Oatly Group AB OTLY, an oatmilk company, provides a range of plant-based dairy products made from oats. It presently has a Zacks Rank of 2. OTLY delivered a trailing four-quarter earnings surprise of 25.1%, on average.

The consensus estimate for Oatly Group’s current fiscal-year sales and earnings implies growth of 2.3% and 63.8%, respectively, from the year-ago figures.

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This article originally published on Zacks Investment Research (zacks.com).

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