Will AGNC Investment's Exposure to Agency MBS Drive Growth?

AGNC Investment AGNC has maintained its focus on agency mortgage-backed securities (MBS), which remain the core of its portfolio strategy. As of March 31, 2025, AGNC held $70.5 billion in Agency MBS within a total investment portfolio of $78.9 billion.

The government-sponsored enterprise guarantee for the principal and interest payments makes Agency MBS a safer investment choice.

The fundamental outlook for fixed income, particularly agency MBS assets, has shown signs of improvement lately. However, following the April tariff announcement, financial market volatility increased substantially, and Agency MBS spreads to benchmark rates widened.

Nonetheless, with its conservative leverage profile and ample liquidity, AGNC Investment is well-positioned for this instability. As of March 31, 2025, AGNC had $6 billion in cash and unencumbered Agency MBS, offering flexibility to manage funding and reinvestment.

Moreover, management believes that Agency MBS offers investors a compelling return opportunity for AGNC. Although the market is extremely competitive, the company's focus on agency MBS puts it in a position to possibly profit from favorable trends. However, execution will be crucial to achieving these advantages.

How AGNC Competes With NLY & STWD

AGNC competes with Annaly Capital Management NLY and Starwood Property Trust STWD within the mortgage REITs space.

Annaly’s investment strategy is significantly based on traditional Agency MBS. As of March 31, 2025, the company’s investment portfolio totaled $84.9 billion, of which $75 billion was allocated to Agency MBS. Most of these securities held actual or implied AAA ratings. Management remains optimistic about the 2025 outlook for Agency MBS, driven by favorable dynamics. Further, Annaly’s Agency MBS holdings are anticipated to provide stronger returns, supported by favorable supply-demand dynamics, lower financing costs, and a steeper yield curve.

In contrast, Starwood Property Trust focuses on commercial real estate-backed investments. It emphasizes commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS) and related commercial real estate assets. As of the first quarter of 2025, the company held a $1.02 billion CMBS portfolio. Despite a slight decline in CMBS holdings during the first quarter of 2025, the company’s income remained steady through principal repayments and targeted acquisitions. However, Starwood Property Trust’s asset management expertise and ability to navigate the complexities of the CMBS market contribute to its strong market position and growth potential in the future.

AGNC Investment's Price Performance, Valuations & Estimates

Over the past year, shares of AGNC have lost 1.7% compared with the industry’s decline of 4.1%.

One Year Price Performance

From a valuation standpoint, AGNC Investment trades at a forward price-to-tangible book (P/TB) ratio of 1.08X, above the industry’s average of 0.97X.

Price-to-Tangible Book TTM

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for AGNC’s 2025 and 2026 earnings implies year-over-year declines of 11.2% and 3.9%, respectively. The estimates for 2025 and 2026 have been unchanged over the past 30 days.

Estimates Revision Trend

AGNC currently carries a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold). You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank (Strong Buy) stocks here.

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This article originally published on Zacks Investment Research (zacks.com).

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