Can BJ's Restaurants' Traffic Recovery Fuel a Sustainable Turnaround?

BJ's Restaurants, Inc. BJRI is showing early signs of a potential turnaround, thanks to a notable rebound in traffic. In first-quarter 2025, the company posted 2.7% traffic growth, surpassing the industry average by over 300 basis points, and saw strong comps in both January and March despite a soft February impacted by weather and delayed tax refunds.

This traffic resurgence is not just a seasonal blip. BJRI’s team attributes it to strategic initiatives like improved operations, enhanced value offerings such as the Pizookie Meal Deal, and smart use of social media to amplify products like the viral Pizookie Platter. These efforts have not only driven more visits but also helped lift guest satisfaction to multi-year highs.

Importantly, BJ’s Restaurants leveraged this momentum to deliver record first-quarter 2025 profitability, achieving 16% restaurant-level margins and 10.2% adjusted EBITDA margin. Behind these numbers are real efficiency gains. Streamlined POS systems, proactive facility maintenance and AI-driven labor scheduling are helping lower costs while improving execution.

While BJRI continues to operate in a consumer environment filled with uncertainty, management reports stable guest behavior across income cohorts and dayparts, signaling resilience in demand. With the brand’s focus on “everyday celebration” occasions, moments consumers are less likely to cut, further enhancing its defensive positioning.

Looking ahead, menu renovations, off-premise enhancements and continued remodels provide additional levers for growth. If BJRI can maintain traffic gains while sustaining margin discipline, the recent momentum may mark the beginning of a long-term turnaround.

Casual Dining Peers Chart Their Recovery Paths

As BJ’s Restaurants pursues a traffic-led recovery, two notable competitors, The Cheesecake Factory CAKE and Texas Roadhouse TXRH, are also navigating the evolving casual dining landscape with distinct strategies.

The Cheesecake Factory, like BJRI, is emphasizing value and targeted promotions to protect guest counts. Despite a high menu price perception, The Cheesecake Factory has maintained modest pricing increases and invested in kitchen modernization to support throughput and quality. However, traffic trends have been mixed and its urban-heavy footprint poses challenges in softer demand environments.

On the other hand, Texas Roadhouse has consistently outperformed in traffic, leveraging its well-established value positioning and high guest frequency. Its operational model, focused on speed, hospitality and in-house food prep, has enabled robust comp sales and repeat visits. Texas Roadhouse’s edge lies in executional consistency, a benchmark BJRI is actively working toward.

All three brands face margin pressures and shifting consumer preferences, but BJRI’s recent gains suggest it is gaining ground in a competitive space.

BJRI’s Price Performance, Valuation and Estimates

BJRI’s shares have gained 26.2% in the past six months compared with the industry’s growth of 3.5%.

Price Performance

Despite the recent gain, BJRI is priced at a discount relative to its industry. It has a forward 12-month price-to-earnings ratio of 22.41, which is well below the industry average.

P/E (F12M)

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for 2025 and 2026 earnings per share has remained stable in the past 30 days. 

The stock currently carries a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold). You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank (Strong Buy) stocks here.

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This article originally published on Zacks Investment Research (zacks.com).

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