CINF Stock Trades Above 200-Day SMA: Time to Buy it for Solid Returns?

Cincinnati Financial Corporation CINF has been trading above its 200-day simple moving average (SMA), signaling a short-term bullish trend. Its share price, as of July 8, 2025, was $146.09, down 9.6% from its 52-week high of $161.75.

SMA is a widely used technical analysis tool to predict future price trends by analyzing historical price data. The 200-day SMA is a technical indicator used to identify long-term trends in the stock market. It represents the average closing price of a stock over the past 200 trading days. 

With a market capitalization of $22.83 billion, the average volume of shares traded in the last three months was 0.6 million.

Price Performance

Shares of CINF have gained 22.7% in the past year, outperforming the industry, the Finance sector and the S&P 500 composite’s return of 15.3%, 19.1% and 10.2%, respectively.

CINF’s Growth Projection Encourages

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Cincinnati Financial’s 2025 revenues is pegged at $11.14 billion, implying a year-over-year improvement of 11.9%. The consensus estimate for 2026 earnings per share and revenues indicates an increase of 55% and 8.1%, respectively, from the corresponding 2025 estimates. 

Earnings have grown 15.8% in the past five years. CINF beat earnings estimates in three of the past four quarters and missed in one, with an average surprise of 39.04%.

CINF’s Expensive Valuation

Based on the forward 12-month price-to-book ratio, Cincinnati Financial is currently trading at 1.67X, above its industry average of 1.53X. Shares of The Travelers Companies, Inc. TRV and Palomar Holdings, Inc. PLMR are also trading at a multiple higher than the industry average, while NMI Holdings Inc. NMIH shares are trading at a discount.

Optimistic Analyst Sentiment on CINF

One of the seven analysts covering the stock has raised estimates for 2025 and 2026 over the past 60 days. Thus, the Zacks Consensus Estimate for 2025 and 2026 moved 0.3% and 0.8% north, respectively, in the last 60 days.

Average Target Price for CINF Suggests Upside

Based on short-term price targets offered by six analysts, the Zacks average price target is $152.83 per share. The average suggests a potential 45% upside from the last closing price.

Factors Acting in Favor of CINF

Prudent pricing, an agent-centric model, a higher level of insured exposures and disciplined expansion of Cincinnati Re should benefit premiums, the primary driver of an insurer’s top line. CINF boasts above-average industry premium growth.

The Excess and Surplus line has been performing well since its inception in 2008. This segment should continue to benefit from new business-written premiums, higher renewal-written premiums and higher average renewal estimated pricing. Technology and data are also used to identify new exposures in emerging businesses.

Improving interest income from fixed-maturity securities and a decrease in equity portfolio dividends in an improved rate environment should drive net investment income.

Notably, its free cash flow conversion has remained more than 150% over the last few quarters, reflecting its solid earnings.

CINF’s Wealth Distribution

In terms of capital management, Cincinnati Financial has returned capital to its shareholders through share buybacks, regular cash dividends, as well as special dividends. The board of directors had increased the annual cash dividend rate for 65 consecutive years. Its dividend yield of 2.3% is better than the industry average of 0.2%, making the stock an attractive pick for yield-seeking investors. The dividend increases reflected strong operating performance and signaled management and the board's positive outlook and confidence in outstanding capital, liquidity and financial flexibility.

End Notes

Higher level of insured exposure, rate increases, agent-focused business models, consistent cash flow and prudent capital deployment make Cincinnati Financial a strong contender for being in one’s portfolio. 

Coupled with the impressive dividend history, solid growth projections, as well as optimistic analyst sentiment, the time appears right for potential investors to bet on this Zacks Rank #2 (Buy) insurer. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank (Strong Buy) stocks here.

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This article originally published on Zacks Investment Research (zacks.com).

Zacks Investment Research