Is Tesla Facing Roadblocks in Robotaxis' San Francisco Expansion?

Tesla TSLA is planning to expand its robotaxi service to the San Francisco Bay Area within the next month or two, pending regulatory approval, per CEO Elon Musk. The company began a limited trial of the long-awaited service in Austin, TX, last month, deploying around a dozen vehicles under strict conditions, including designated passengers and a safety monitor in the front seat.

Musk announced on his social media platform X that Tesla will widen its service to cover more of Austin this coming weekend, though he did not disclose exact details about the expansion's scope or location.

This robotaxi rollout is seen as critical for Tesla’s long-term strategy, especially as demand for its aging EV models wanes amid increasing competition and backlash over Musk’s political stances. A significant portion of Tesla’s market value is tied to Musk’s vision for AI-driven robotaxis and humanoid robots.

Bringing autonomous vehicles to market has proven more challenging than expected due to steep costs, stringent regulations and investigations. While expansion in Texas encountered little regulatory resistance, launching in California will be more complex. Tesla will need several permits from both the California Department of Motor Vehicles (DMV) and the California Public Utilities Commission (CPUC) to operate a commercial autonomous service. 

The CPUC granted Tesla an initial approval in March, but further authorizations are still required. Per social media videos, early public tests in Austin reportedly encountered several traffic-related issues.

Other Players Making Progress in Robotaxi Commercialization

Alphabet’s GOOGL self-driving division, Waymo, is the only company running driverless robotaxis charging fees from passengers. With a fleet exceeding 1,500 vehicles, Alphabet Waymo facilitates more than 250,000 rides each week in major cities, such as San Francisco, Los Angeles, Phoenix, Austin and Atlanta. Alphabet’s Waymo sent its fleet to New York City this week to start mapping the city's streets, with human drivers still behind the wheel as they wait for state law to permit fully autonomous rides. 

Last month, Zoox, Amazon’s AMZN autonomous vehicle subsidiary, opened its first dedicated robotaxi manufacturing facility in California. This marks Amazon Zoox’s key step toward launching its commercial self-driving taxi service in the United States. Amazon Zoox’s 220,000-square-foot plant is designed to produce up to 10,000 robotaxis per year at full capacity.

Tesla’s Price Performance, Valuation and Estimates

Tesla has underperformed the Zacks Automotive-Domestic industry year to date. TSLA shares have lost 26.7% compared with the industry’s decline of 23.1%.

YTD Price Performance

From a valuation perspective, Tesla appears overvalued. Going by its price/sales ratio, the company is trading at a forward sales multiple of 9.2, higher than its industry’s 2.52.

EPS Estimates Revision

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for 2025 and 2026 EPS has moved down 3 cents and 5 cents, respectively, in the past seven days. 

 TSLA carries a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold) at present. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank (Strong Buy) stocks here.

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This article originally published on Zacks Investment Research (zacks.com).

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