Tariffs Hit Brazil: Can MELI Maintain Momentum in its Biggest Market?

MercadoLibre MELI remains firmly rooted in Brazil, which currently contributes more than 50% of its revenues. Strong growth across commerce and fintech, rising brand preference and new Mercado Pago branding have made Brazil its most important and established market.

However, President Trump’s 50% tariff on Brazilian imports has raised concerns. MercadoLibre stock was down more than 3% in Thursday trading after Trump’s announcement. While it targets geopolitical tensions more than trade flows, the resulting pressure on Brazil’s economy could indirectly affect MercadoLibre. A weaker currency and slower GDP growth may squeeze consumer spending, impacting e-commerce demand. Potential retaliatory moves from Brazil may also disrupt supply chains or raise logistics costs, adding to the uncertainty.

In the first quarter of 2025, MercadoLibre generated $3.08 billion in net revenues from Brazil, up 20% year over year in USD terms. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for 2025 revenues from Brazil is pegged at $14.3 billion. However, any retaliation from Brazil or further escalation in tariffs could add pressure to MercadoLibre’s operations in its biggest market, which investors should monitor closely.

MELI is ramping up its commitment to Brazil with a record 34 billion reais ($5.8 billion) investment planned for 2025, a 48% jump from last year. The spending will support logistics, technology, marketing, entertainment, hiring and loyalty programs across both commerce and fintech. With Brazil contributing over half of MELI’s revenues, this move highlights its focus on strengthening operations in its most important market.

MELI Faces Stiff Competition in Brazil

MercadoLibre faces rising competition in e-commerce from Amazon AMZN and Sea Limited SE, which are expanding their operations in Brazil.

Amazon offers customers more than 100 million products across 50 categories in the country. Amazon's logistics network in Brazil includes 10 fulfillment centers and 22 delivery stations throughout the country.

Shopee, backed by Sea Limited, is expanding in Brazil with aggressive pricing, mobile-first engagement and incentives for sellers. Sea Limited’s Shopee opened its first fulfillment distribution center in the Sao Paulo metro area late last year, designed to store products from Brazilian sellers and speed up last-mile delivery in the region.

MELI’s Share Price Performance, Valuation and Estimates

MELI shares have gained 41.7% in the year-to-date (YTD) period, outperforming the Zacks Internet – Commerce industry and the Zacks Retail-Wholesale sector’s growth of 6.8% and 4.5%, respectively.

MELI’s YTD Price Performance

From a valuation standpoint, MELI stock is currently trading at a forward 12-month Price/Sales ratio of 3.91X compared with the industry’s 2.17X. MELI has a Value Score of D.

MELI Valuation

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for second-quarter 2025 earnings is pegged at $12.01 per share, which has remained steady over the past 30 days, indicating 14.60% year-over-year growth.

MercadoLibre, Inc. Price and Consensus

MercadoLibre, Inc. price-consensus-chart | MercadoLibre, Inc. Quote

MercadoLibre currently carries a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold). You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank (Strong Buy) stocks here. 

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This article originally published on Zacks Investment Research (zacks.com).

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