JD.com, Inc. (JD): A Bull Case Theory

We came across a bullish thesis on JD.com, Inc. on Coughlin Capital’s Substack by Brian Coughlin. In this article, we will summarize the bulls’ thesis on JD. JD.com, Inc.'s share was trading at $30.80 as of July 14^th. JD’s trailing and forward P/E were 7.57 and 7.67 respectively according to Yahoo Finance.

JD.com, one of China’s largest and most integral e-commerce platforms, has seen its stock decline by nearly 68% from its 2021 peak—despite remaining fundamentally strong. Vertically integrated and logistics-driven, JD continues to profitably serve hundreds of millions of users across essential and discretionary categories. Its competitive edge lies in its robust logistics infrastructure, which includes owned warehouses and last-mile delivery, providing superior reliability and speed that foster consumer loyalty.

The real shift lies not in business fundamentals, but in valuation. JD now trades at just 8.4x forward earnings and 4.2x EBITDA—far below historical averages of 24.5x and 16x respectively—offering investors exposure to a profitable, deeply embedded digital infrastructure player at a steep discount. Additionally, over 50% of JD’s market cap is backed by cash, and the company has demonstrated disciplined capital returns, reducing its share count by ~6% over the past year and generating a 6.2% shareholder yield.

These repurchases signal strong capital allocation and confidence in intrinsic value. While macroeconomic headwinds in China, subdued consumer sentiment, regulatory uncertainty, and intense price competition—especially from Meituan and Alibaba in instant delivery—pose legitimate risks, JD’s integrated logistics, operational scale, and cost discipline provide a durable foundation.

Its continued strategic expansion into underserved markets adds to the long-term investment case. At current levels, JD offers a compelling risk/reward setup with downside already priced in and multiple levers for revaluation, particularly as sentiment toward Chinese equities stabilizes or improves.

Previously we covered a bullish thesis on JD.com (JD) by Stock Analysis Compilation in June 2025, which highlighted JD’s strategic shift to high-margin electronics, government rebate tailwinds, and strong capital returns. The stock has depreciated ~7% since, as sentiment remains weak. Brian Coughlin shares a similar view but focuses more on JD’s valuation disconnect and logistics-led advantage.

JD.com is not on our list of the 30 Most Popular Stocks Among Hedge Funds. As per our database, 66 hedge fund portfolios held JD at the end of the first quarter which was 78 in the previous quarter. While we acknowledge the potential of JD as an investment, we believe certain AI stocks offer greater upside potential and carry less downside risk. If you're looking for an extremely undervalued AI stock that also stands to benefit significantly from Trump-era tariffs and the onshoring trend, see our free report on the best short-term AI stock.

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Disclosure: None.