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Chipotle Mexican Grill (CMG) Stock Drops Despite Market Gains: Important Facts to Note

By Zacks Equity Research | July 16, 2025, 5:45 PM

In the latest close session, Chipotle Mexican Grill (CMG) was down 1.06% at $53.38. This change lagged the S&P 500's daily gain of 0.32%. Elsewhere, the Dow saw an upswing of 0.53%, while the tech-heavy Nasdaq appreciated by 0.26%.

The Mexican food chain's shares have seen an increase of 5% over the last month, surpassing the Retail-Wholesale sector's gain of 3.84% and the S&P 500's gain of 4.51%.

The investment community will be closely monitoring the performance of Chipotle Mexican Grill in its forthcoming earnings report. The company is scheduled to release its earnings on July 23, 2025. The company's upcoming EPS is projected at $0.32, signifying a 5.88% drop compared to the same quarter of the previous year. Simultaneously, our latest consensus estimate expects the revenue to be $3.1 billion, showing a 4.36% escalation compared to the year-ago quarter.

Looking at the full year, the Zacks Consensus Estimates suggest analysts are expecting earnings of $1.2 per share and revenue of $12.23 billion. These totals would mark changes of +7.14% and +8.1%, respectively, from last year.

Investors should also note any recent changes to analyst estimates for Chipotle Mexican Grill. These recent revisions tend to reflect the evolving nature of short-term business trends. As a result, we can interpret positive estimate revisions as a good sign for the business outlook.

Based on our research, we believe these estimate revisions are directly related to near-term stock moves. To capitalize on this, we've crafted the Zacks Rank, a unique model that incorporates these estimate changes and offers a practical rating system.

The Zacks Rank system, stretching from #1 (Strong Buy) to #5 (Strong Sell), has a noteworthy track record of outperforming, validated by third-party audits, with stocks rated #1 producing an average annual return of +25% since the year 1988. Over the last 30 days, the Zacks Consensus EPS estimate has moved 0.14% lower. As of now, Chipotle Mexican Grill holds a Zacks Rank of #3 (Hold).

With respect to valuation, Chipotle Mexican Grill is currently being traded at a Forward P/E ratio of 44.79. This represents a premium compared to its industry average Forward P/E of 20.84.

Investors should also note that CMG has a PEG ratio of 2.68 right now. This metric is used similarly to the famous P/E ratio, but the PEG ratio also takes into account the stock's expected earnings growth rate. The Retail - Restaurants industry had an average PEG ratio of 2.65 as trading concluded yesterday.

The Retail - Restaurants industry is part of the Retail-Wholesale sector. This industry, currently bearing a Zacks Industry Rank of 151, finds itself in the bottom 39% echelons of all 250+ industries.

The strength of our individual industry groups is measured by the Zacks Industry Rank, which is calculated based on the average Zacks Rank of the individual stocks within these groups. Our research shows that the top 50% rated industries outperform the bottom half by a factor of 2 to 1.

Be sure to follow all of these stock-moving metrics, and many more, on Zacks.com.

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Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc. (CMG): Free Stock Analysis Report

This article originally published on Zacks Investment Research (zacks.com).

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