Can Unit Expansion Support Chipotle's Systemwide Sales in 2026?

Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc. CMG continues to execute its unit development strategy, with new restaurant openings positioned as a meaningful contributor to systemwide sales. Management reiterated confidence in the company’s long-term opportunity to reach approximately 7,000 restaurants in North America, underscoring the depth of its domestic expansion runway. For 2026, Chipotle plans to open roughly 350 new restaurants, following the addition of 334 company-owned locations in 2025. Management characterized this pace of development as appropriate for scaling the brand while maintaining attractive unit-level returns.

The company noted that the majority of new restaurants continue to incorporate the Chipotlane format, which integrates a digital order pickup lane into the restaurant footprint. Management reiterated that Chipotlane locations generate higher average unit volumes and stronger returns relative to non-Chipotlane restaurants. In the fourth quarter of 2025, 97 of 132 new openings included Chipotlanes. The format remains a central component of the development pipeline as Chipotle continues to support digital engagement and operational throughput.

International expansion remains part of Chipotle’s longer-term growth strategy, with management emphasizing a disciplined and selective approach. During 2025, the company opened 11 partner-operated restaurants internationally and exited the year with positive comparable sales in Europe. Management highlighted improving unit economics in select international markets, including Central London and Frankfurt, while reiterating that North America remains the primary focus of near-term development activity.

Looking ahead, management guided to approximately flat comparable restaurant sales for 2026, reflecting a cautious planning posture amid an uncertain consumer environment. With pricing expected to increase in the range of 1% to 2% for the year, incremental unit additions are expected to support total revenue growth as new restaurants enter the system. Management reaffirmed that development plans remain subject to maintaining strong returns, limited cannibalization and continued performance of new restaurants relative to the existing asset base.

CMG’s Stock Price Performance, Valuation & Estimates

Shares of Chipotle have lost 31.7% in the past year compared with the industry’s fall of 4.5%. In the same time frame, other industry players like Starbucks Corporation SBUX, Sweetgreen, Inc. SG and CAVA Group, Inc. CAVA have declined 14.6%, 76.6% and 26.2%, respectively.

CMG One-Year Price Performance

From a valuation standpoint, CMG trades at a forward price-to-sales (P/S) multiple of 3.62, below the industry’s average of 3.78. Conversely, industry players, such as Starbucks, Sweetgreen and CAVA, have P/S multiples of 2.80, 0.85 and 5.14, respectively.

CMG’s P/S Ratio (Forward 12-Month) vs. Industry

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for CMG’s 2026 earnings per share has declined in the past 30 days.

EPS Trend of CMG Stock

The company is likely to report soft earnings, with projections indicating a decline of 2.6% in 2026. Conversely, industry players like Sweetgreen and CAVA are likely to witness an increase of 12.7% and 6.7%, respectively, year over year, in 2026 earnings. Meanwhile, Starbucks' fiscal 2026 earnings are likely to witness a rise of 8.5% year over year.

CMG stock currently has a Zacks Rank #5 (Strong Sell).

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This article originally published on Zacks Investment Research (zacks.com).

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