Boston Beer's Q2 Earnings on Horizon: What Surprise Awaits Investors?

The Boston Beer Company, Inc. (SAM) is likely to register growth in its top line when it reports second-quarter 2025 results on July 24. The company’s bottom line is expected to have declined year over year.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for revenues is pegged at $596.8 million, implying a 3.1% increase from the prior-year quarter’s reported figure. The consensus mark for earnings has dipped 0.7% in the past 30 days to $4.37 per share. This implies a drop of 0.5% from the year-ago quarter.

In the last reported quarter, the company delivered an earnings surprise of 176.9%. SAM has a trailing four-quarter earnings surprise of 32.6%, on average.

Factors Likely to Have Impacted SAM’s Q2 Earnings

Boston Beer remains focused on strategic pricing, product innovation and brand development to strengthen its market position and drive performance. The company is expanding its presence in the Beyond Beer category, which continues to outpace the traditional beer market. Strong price realization and ongoing procurement savings are helping offset the inflationary pressures.

The company’s strategic pricing actions and cost-optimization initiatives are likely to have aided the gross margin in the to-be-reported quarter. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for shipment volume is pegged at 2.2 million barrels for the quarter under review, up from 1.7 million barrels seen in the first quarter.

However, Boston Beer has been facing challenges, primarily due to the continued slowdown in the hard seltzer category and weakening demand for its Truly brand. As consumer preferences shift toward other beyond-beer options and more affordable premium light beers, Truly brand’s performance remains under pressure. The loss of novelty in the hard seltzer space, combined with heightened competition from emerging beverage categories, has been weighing on demand.

Macroeconomic factors, including inflation and reduced discretionary spending, have also been contributing to a shift in volume away from hard seltzers. These headwinds are expected to have impacted Boston Beer’s overall sales mix and put pressure on depletions.

What the Zacks Model Unveils for SAM Stock

Our proven model does not conclusively predict an earnings beat for Boston Beer this time around. The combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) increases the odds of an earnings beat. But that is not the case here.

Boston Beer currently has an Earnings ESP of -4.15% and a Zacks Rank #4 (Sell). You can uncover the best stocks before they are reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.

Valuation Picture of SAM Stock

From a valuation perspective, Boston Beer stock is trading at a premium relative to historical and industry benchmarks. With a forward 12-month price-to-earnings of 19.11X, above the Beverages - Alcohol industry’s average of 15.47X, the stock offers compelling value for investors seeking exposure to the sector.

Boston Beer shares have shown a downward trend, losing 20.9% in the past three months againstr the industry’s growth of 4.6%.

Stocks With the Favorable Combination

Here are some companies, which according to our model, have the right combination of elements to beat on earnings this reporting cycle.

Freshpet (FRPT) currently has an Earnings ESP of +40.68% and a Zacks Rank of 3. The company is likely to register growth in the top line when it reports second-quarter 2025 numbers. The consensus mark for revenues is pegged at $267.7 million, which indicates an increase of 13.8% from the figure reported in the year-ago quarter. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Freshpet’s quarterly earnings per share of 12 cents implies a sharp rise from a loss per share of three cents reported in the year-ago quarter. The consensus mark has gone down a penny in the past 30 days. FRPT has a trailing four-quarter earnings surprise of 22.3%, on average.

Anheuser-Busch InBev SA/NV (BUD), alias AB InBev, has an Earnings ESP of +7.06% and a Zacks Rank of 3 at present. BUD is likely to register bottom-line decline when it releases second-quarter 2025 results. The consensus estimate for AB InBev’s quarterly earnings has risen a couple of cents in the past 30 days to 89 cents per share, implying a drop of 1.1% from the year-ago quarter’s number.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for quarterly revenues is pegged at $15.3 billion, which implies a drop of 0.5% from the figure reported in the year-ago quarter. BUD delivered an earnings surprise of 10.9%, on average, in the trailing four quarters.

Sysco (SYY) currently has an Earnings ESP of +2.25% and a Zacks Rank of 3. The company is likely to register an increase in the top and bottom lines when it reports fourth-quarter fiscal 2025 numbers. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for SYY’s quarterly EPS is pegged at $1.40, up 0.7% from the year-ago period.

The consensus estimate for Sysco’s quarterly revenues is pegged at $21 billion, which implies an increase of 2.1% from the prior-year quarter. SYY has a trailing four-quarter negative earnings surprise of 2.4%, on average.

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This article originally published on Zacks Investment Research (zacks.com).

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