The Mosaic Company (MOS): A Bull Case Theory

We came across a bullish thesis on The Mosaic Company on VantagePointAI’s Substack. In this article, we will summarize the bulls’ thesis on MOS. The Mosaic Company's share was trading at $35.27 as of July 17^th. MOS’s trailing and forward P/E were 30.41 and 11.82, respectively according to Yahoo Finance.

Mosaic (NYSE: MOS) is no longer just a traditional fertilizer producer; it has evolved into a strategically vital player at the intersection of food security, macroeconomics, and innovation. Headquartered in Tampa with operations spanning the U.S., Canada, and Brazil, Mosaic is the largest U.S. producer of phosphate and potash fertilizers, supplying over 40 countries. Its transformation is driven by modernization efforts, including automation, digital agriculture solutions, and high-value products like MicroEssentials smart fertilizers, which enhance nutrient absorption.

Q1 2025 results showcased this momentum, with net income surging 429% year-over-year to $238 million and adjusted EBITDA reaching $544 million, fueled by strong Brazilian operations and efficiency gains. Mosaic is a third of the way through a $150 million cost-saving program while expanding Mosaic Biosciences, its biologicals arm, which recently launched Neptunion, a green fertilizer in China.

Additional diversification comes from animal feed and industrial phosphate derivatives, non-cyclical businesses that complement its core offerings. Despite a forward P/E of 12.65, well below sector and historical averages, MOS faces risks from volatile fertilizer pricing, trade policy, currency fluctuations, and environmental regulation, amplified by a beta of 1.47. However, its global footprint, long-term supply chain partnerships, and focus on innovation position it to capitalize on agriculture’s shift toward sustainable and precision farming.

Analysts’ 12-month price targets, ranging from $30 to $46, highlight elevated but structured uncertainty, presenting upside potential. In a world where agriculture is becoming greener and more technology-driven, Mosaic offers a compelling, undervalued investment opportunity with asymmetric risk/reward for those able to navigate its volatility.

Previously we covered a bullish thesis on Corteva, Inc. (CTVA) by Business Model Mastery in April 2025, which highlighted its extensive IP portfolio, high-margin trait licensing, and integrated digital farming platform driving sustainable growth. The company’s stock price has appreciated approximately by 18.39% since our coverage. This is because the thesis played out with expanding biologicals and digital adoption. VantagePointAI shares a similar but emphasizes Mosaic’s modernization, biologicals push, and food security leverage.

The Mosaic Company is not on our list of the 30 Most Popular Stocks Among Hedge Funds. As per our database, 48 hedge fund portfolios held MOS at the end of the first quarter which was 41 in the previous quarter. While we acknowledge the potential of MOS as an investment, we believe certain AI stocks offer greater upside potential and carry less downside risk. If you're looking for an extremely undervalued AI stock that also stands to benefit significantly from Trump-era tariffs and the onshoring trend, see our free report on the best short-term AI stock.

READ NEXT: 8 Best Wide Moat Stocks to Buy Now and 30 Most Important AI Stocks According to BlackRock.

Disclosure: None.