Air Lease Corporation (AL): A Bull Case Theory

We came across a bullish thesis on Air Lease Corporation on Valueinvestorsclub.com by singletrack. In this article, we will summarize the bulls’ thesis on AL. Air Lease Corporation's share was trading at $56.93 as of July 21^st. AL’s trailing and forward P/E were 9.95 and 14.22 respectively according to Yahoo Finance.

Air Lease Corporation (AL), founded by aviation pioneer Steven Udvar-Házy, operates a resilient, scaled aircraft leasing business built on acquiring new planes with investment-grade debt and leasing them long-term to over 200 airlines in 70 countries. As of Q1 2025, AL owns 487 aircraft worth $28.6 billion, with an average fleet age of 4.7 years and a 7.2-year lease term, while managing another 57 planes.

Its forward orderbook of 269 aircraft, equivalent to 50% of its current fleet, is already 62% placed, with all deliveries through 2026 fully committed, providing predictable cash flows. Industry dynamics are favorable, with the share of leased aircraft rising from 32% in 2004 to 50% in 2024, supply remaining constrained, and pandemic-era low-rate leases rolling off. These factors support Air Lease’s expected 150–200 basis points of yield expansion over the next few years.

Despite these structural tailwinds, AL trades at just 10x earnings and 0.77x tangible book, a discount to AerCap at 9.4x and 1.3x, reflecting slower book value compounding and less transparent capital allocation. However, AL’s growth trajectory is compelling: deploying its $17 billion orderbook could expand its asset base to $50 billion by 2029, generating $2.7 billion in operating cash flow—or $24 per share—translating into a potential stock price of $89.

With minimal dilution risk, strong demand-supply fundamentals, and rising lease yields, AL offers an attractive risk/reward profile, combining downside protection with meaningful upside potential as the company executes its growth strategy.

Previously we covered a bullish thesis on Air Lease Corporation (AL) by Value Don’t Lie in May 2025, which highlighted AL’s scaled aircraft leasing platform, robust forward orderbook, and structural tailwinds supporting yield expansion and cash flow growth. The company’s stock price has appreciated approximately by 0.4% since our coverage. This is because the thesis has yet to fully play out, with growth drivers remaining intact. Singletrack shares an identical view but emphasizes AL’s valuation gap to AerCap as a key rerating catalyst.

Air Lease Corporation is not on our list of the 30 Most Popular Stocks Among Hedge Funds. As per our database, 37 hedge fund portfolios held AL at the end of the first quarter which was 30 in the previous quarter. While we acknowledge the potential of AL as an investment, we believe certain AI stocks offer greater upside potential and carry less downside risk. If you're looking for an extremely undervalued AI stock that also stands to benefit significantly from Trump-era tariffs and the onshoring trend, see our free report on the best short-term AI stock.

READ NEXT: 8 Best Wide Moat Stocks to Buy Now and 30 Most Important AI Stocks According to BlackRock.

Disclosure: None.