What's in the Cards for Arch Capital This Earnings Season?

Arch Capital Group Ltd. ACGL is expected to register an improvement in its top line but a decline in the bottom line when it reports second-quarter 2025 results on July 29, after the closing bell.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for ACGL’s second-quarter revenues is pegged at $4.65 billion, indicating 18% growth from the year-ago reported figure.

The consensus estimate for earnings is pegged at $2.31 per share. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for ACGL’s second-quarter earnings has moved down 1.3% in the past 30 days. The estimate suggests a year-over-year decline of 10.1%.

What the Zacks Model Unveils for ACGL

Our proven model does not conclusively predict an earnings beat for Arch Capital this time around. This is because a stock needs to have the right combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy), or 3 (Hold). This is not the case, as you can see below:

Earnings ESP: Arch Capital has an Earnings ESP of -1.22% at present. This is because the Most Accurate Estimate of $2.28 is pegged lower than the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $2.31. You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they’re reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.

Arch Capital Group Ltd. Price and EPS Surprise

Arch Capital Group Ltd. price-eps-surprise | Arch Capital Group Ltd. Quote

Zacks Rank: Arch Capital currently carries a Zacks Rank #3.

Factors Likely to Shape Q2 Results of ACGL

An increase in property and short-tail specialty and other liability, increases in casualty, rate increases, new business opportunities, and growth in existing accounts in the Insurance and Reinsurance segments are likely to have favored net premiums earned.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for net premiums earned is pegged at $4.2 billion, indicating an increase of 17.1% from the year-ago reported figure. We expect net premiums earned to increase 18.8% to $4.2 billion.

Net investment income is likely to have benefited from higher yields available in the financial markets and net cash flow from operating activities, which is expected to increase the invested asset base. We expect net investment income to increase 13% to $411.5 million. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for investment income is pegged at $401 million, indicating a 10.2% increase from the year-ago reported figure.
The top line is likely to have gained from improved earned premiums and higher net investment income. 

Expenses are expected to have increased in the to-be-reported quarter due to higher losses and loss adjustment expenses, acquisition costs, other operating expenses, amortization of intangible assets, corporate expenses, and interest expenses. We expect total expenses to increase 23.4% to $3.5 billion.

Better pricing and increased exposure, coupled with prudent underwriting, are expected to have improved underwriting profitability, leading to an improvement in the combined ratio. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for the combined ratio is pegged at 82. Our estimate is pegged at 82.1.

Stocks to Consider

Some insurance stocks with the right combination of elements to deliver an earnings beat this time around are:

Root, Inc. ROOT has an Earnings ESP of +58.29% and sports a Zacks Rank #1 at present. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for second-quarter 2025 earnings is pegged at $1.06, indicating a year-over-year increase of 303.8%. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.

ROOT’s earnings beat estimates in each of the last four reported quarters.

Palomar Holdings, Inc. PLMR has an Earnings ESP of +0.25% and a Zacks Rank #2 at present. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for second-quarter 2025 earnings is $1.68, representing a 34.4% year-over-year increase. 

PLMR’s earnings beat estimates in each of the last four reported quarters.

NMI Holdings Inc. NMIH has an Earnings ESP of +0.93% and a Zacks Rank #3 at present. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for second-quarter 2025 earnings is pegged at $1.16, indicating a year-over-year decrease of 3.3%. 

NMIH’s earnings beat estimates in three of the last four reported quarters and missed in one.

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This article originally published on Zacks Investment Research (zacks.com).

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