TSLA Q2 Deep Dive: Market Reacts to Missed Revenue, Autonomy and AI in Focus

Electric vehicle pioneer Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA) fell short of the market’s revenue expectations in Q2 CY2025, with sales falling 11.8% year on year to $22.5 billion. Its non-GAAP profit of $0.40 per share was in line with analysts’ consensus estimates.

Is now the time to buy TSLA? Find out in our full research report (it’s free).

StockStory’s Take

Tesla’s second quarter was marked by revenue and delivery shortfalls relative to Wall Street expectations, which contributed to a pronounced negative market reaction. Management cited the beginning of robotaxi operations in Austin and increased focus on autonomous technology as major themes. CEO Elon Musk acknowledged the company is navigating near-term headwinds including the expiration of U.S. EV credits and new tariffs. Vaibhav Taneja, Chief Financial Officer, noted, “We have near-term challenges in our business due to the negative impacts of the bill and tariffs.”

Looking ahead, Tesla’s management emphasized the expansion of autonomous ride-hailing, further development of the Optimus humanoid robot, and investments in AI as key priorities. Musk stated that “autonomy is the story” for Tesla’s future, with widespread robotaxi deployment and regulatory clearance as critical steps. The company also anticipates increased capital expenditures and a slower ramp for new lower-cost models due to shifting incentives and regulatory environments. Management stressed that execution on these initiatives will shape Tesla’s competitive positioning through the remainder of the year.

Key Insights from Management’s Remarks

Tesla’s leadership attributed the quarter’s results to increased investment in autonomy, the rollout of new products, and external regulatory changes that affected both automotive and energy businesses.

• Robotaxi launch in Austin: Management highlighted the first commercial robotaxi service operating with no driver in Austin, describing it as a pivotal milestone. The expansion of this service is planned for additional U.S. cities, pending regulatory approval, and is expected to scale rapidly if approvals are secured.
• Headwinds from regulatory changes: The repeal of U.S. EV credits and changes to emissions standards were cited as reducing vehicle affordability and regulatory credit revenue. CFO Vaibhav Taneja explained that the company is adjusting production and incentives ahead of the credit expiration, which is expected to impact U.S. deliveries in the coming quarters.
• Tariff impacts on cost structure: Management reported that tariffs increased costs, particularly in automotive and energy businesses, with further cost pressures anticipated as manufacturing lead times catch up. Despite these challenges, customers in energy storage are accepting some of the tariff-related price increases due to high demand.
• Uptick in Full Self-Driving (FSD) adoption: The introduction of FSD version 12 and pricing adjustments have led to a 25% increase in FSD adoption rates in North America. Management emphasized that FSD is a key differentiator and a major driver of customer interest.
• Progress in energy and AI investments: Energy storage deployments saw gross profit improvement, though overall deployments varied due to policy changes and supply chain issues. Investments in AI infrastructure and robotics (including the Optimus robot and Dojo chip development) are increasing operating expenses, but are considered foundational for long-term growth.

Drivers of Future Performance

Tesla’s outlook centers on scaling autonomous services, managing cost headwinds from regulations and tariffs, and accelerating AI-driven innovation across mobility and energy platforms.

• Expansion of autonomous services: Management plans to increase robotaxi operations to cover a significant portion of the U.S. population, subject to regulatory approvals. Tesla aims for step-change improvements in autonomy software and broader FSD adoption, which it believes will drive future vehicle demand and recurring revenue.
• Cost pressures from policy shifts: The company expects continued headwinds from the expiration of EV credits and increased tariffs, particularly affecting U.S. vehicle affordability and energy storage margins. These factors are expected to raise costs and challenge near-term profitability.
• Continued investment in AI and robotics: Tesla will maintain high capital expenditures in AI, robotics (including scaling Optimus production), and manufacturing upgrades. Leadership believes these investments are critical for long-term competitiveness but acknowledges they will weigh on margins and cash flow in the near term.

Catalysts in Upcoming Quarters

Going forward, the StockStory team will be monitoring (1) the expansion pace and regulatory wins for robotaxi services in new U.S. markets, (2) the impact of expiring EV credits and tariffs on U.S. vehicle affordability and margins, and (3) tangible progress in scaling Optimus robot production and AI infrastructure. Execution in these areas will be critical to evaluating Tesla’s ability to manage near-term disruptions while pursuing long-term growth in autonomy and energy.

Tesla currently trades at $307.45, down from $333 just before the earnings. At this price, is it a buy or sell? Find out in our full research report (it’s free).

Our Favorite Stocks Right Now

When Trump unveiled his aggressive tariff plan in April 2024, markets tanked as investors feared a full-blown trade war. But those who panicked and sold missed the subsequent rebound that’s already erased most losses.

Don’t let fear keep you from great opportunities and take a look at Top 5 Strong Momentum Stocks for this week. This is a curated list of our High Quality stocks that have generated a market-beating return of 183% over the last five years (as of March 31st 2025).

Stocks that made our list in 2020 include now familiar names such as Nvidia (+1,545% between March 2020 and March 2025) as well as under-the-radar businesses like the once-micro-cap company Kadant (+351% five-year return). Find your next big winner with StockStory today.

StockStory is growing and hiring equity analyst and marketing roles. Are you a 0 to 1 builder passionate about the markets and AI? See the open roles here.