Chipotle Q2 Comps Fall 4%, Guidance Trimmed Amid Volatility

Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc. CMG reported second-quarter 2025 results, with earnings beating the Zacks Consensus Estimate and revenues missing the same.

Q2 Comps Discussion

In second-quarter 2025, Chipotle faced challenges due to a 4% decline in comparable restaurant sales. This drop stemmed primarily from weaker consumer sentiment, particularly in May, which softened transaction trends. However, management noted a rebound in June following the launch of summer marketing efforts, including the successful rollout of Chipotle Honey Chicken and the “Summer of Extras” rewards campaign. These initiatives helped turn comps and transaction trends positive by the end of the quarter, a momentum that continued into July.

Despite this improvement, volatility in consumer behavior prompted the company to revise its full-year outlook. The cautious guidance indicates both macroeconomic uncertainties and competitive pricing pressures across the fast casual and QSR landscape.

Still, Chipotle remains optimistic about returning to mid-single-digit comp growth over time. The company is leaning on its “comp flywheel,” a strategy focused on operations, marketing and digital experience, to regain momentum. Enhancements in kitchen efficiency, expanded menu innovation and deeper digital engagement via loyalty programs are key elements of this plan.

CMG’s 2025 Outlook

For 2025, management anticipates comparable sales to remain roughly flat, down from the earlier projection of low-single-digit growth. It expects to open between 315 and 345 new company-operated restaurants in 2025, with more than 80% featuring a Chipotlane. It expects a tax rate in the range of 25-27% in 2025.

CMG’s Zacks Rank & Key Picks

Chipotle currently has a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold).

Some better-ranked stocks in the Zacks Retail-Wholesale sector are Cracker Barrel Old Country Store, Inc. CBRL, Yum China Holdings, Inc. YUMC and Yum! Brands, Inc. YUM.

Cracker Barrel currently sports a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy). You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.

Cracker Barrel has gained 24.4% in the year-to-date period. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Cracker Barrel’s fiscal 2026 sales and EPS indicates growth of 1.8% and 9.4%, respectively, from the year-ago period’s levels.

Yum China presently carries a Zacks Rank #2 (Buy). The stock has gained 5.2% in the past six months.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Yum China's 2025 sales and EPS implies growth of 2.8% and 6.9%, respectively, from the year-ago levels.

Yum! Brands presently carries a Zacks Rank #2. The stock has gained 9.4% in the year-to-date period.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Yum! Brands’ 2025 sales and EPS indicate an increase of 6.9% and 10%, respectively, from the year-ago levels.

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This article originally published on Zacks Investment Research (zacks.com).

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