Palantir Stock Gains Firepower From Pentagon AI Deals

Palantir Technologies Inc. (NASDAQ: PLTR) is trading at a record high one week before the company’s earnings. The stock continues to be a favorite of retail investors, but the recent move in the stock is due to institutional buying.

Recent history shows that PLTR stock tends to fall after earnings, regardless of the company’s strong results. Some of that has to do with the stock’s performance. It’s up over 110% in 2025. Even the most optimistic analysts' forecasts give the stock a $160 price target, suggesting a healthy pullback would be in order.

Plus, it’s impossible to discuss PLTR stock without asking questions about the stock’s lofty valuation. However, that’s where the story requires some nuance.

On the one hand, investors have to be careful about falling into the “this time it’s different” camp. Objectively, Palantir is expensive, and it wouldn’t be unusual or unprecedented to see the stock drop by 30% or more as it did earlier this year.

On the other hand, Palantir is not a company that has easy comparisons. While it’s increasingly proving its relevance outside its traditional government work, its relationship with the U.S. Department of Defense (DoD) remains central. With over 50% of the company’s revenue still coming from government contracts, it’s important to understand Palantir’s evolving role with the Pentagon when evaluating its future growth.

The AI Engine for the Defense Sector

On the conference call after Palantir’s earnings report in May, chief executive officer (CEO) Alex Karp remarked, “We (Palantir) are now the AI backbone for several major programs across the Department of Defense. AIP is not a pilot; it is operational, on classified networks, making real-world decisions in real time."

In practical terms, Palantir’s platforms ingest, process, and transform vast, multi-source data into real-time intelligence using machine learning and advanced analytics..

In the defense sector, this means that Palantir’s platform powers decision-making at machine speed across the modern battlefield, in logistics, and in strategic planning. Some specific examples include:

• Sensor fusion that integrates satellite, drone, radar, and battlefield data
• Real-time decision support for commanders or autonomous systems
• Predictive modeling that can anticipate issues such as supply chain disruptions and battlefield movements
• Mission planning and simulation using generative AI
• Autonomous systems coordination, such as drone swarms or unmanned vehicles

This makes Palantir distinctly different from companies such as Microsoft Corp. (NASDAQ: MSFT) because Palantir’s Gotham platform is built for national security. In fact, it currently operates under classified cloud certifications that allow the company access to environments that others simply don’t have access to.

The Proof Is in the Contracts

It’s one thing to make declarative statements, as Karp is prone to do. It’s another thing when those statements are backed up with tangible contracts. Palantir has several contracts that will continue to support the company’s growth.

These are not experimental pilot programs—they are key elements of the Department of Defense’s long-term AI modernization strategy:

• Executing the U.S. Army TITAN Contract, a clear example of Palantir enabling front-line AI decision-making.
• Deploying Palantir’s AIP Program across the DoD, expanding its operational use in real-world defense environments.
• Building a “Digital War Room” with the U.S. Army, using Palantir’s AIP platform to enhance command infrastructure.
• Supporting the Joint All-Domain Command and Control (JADC2) initiative, the Pentagon’s flagship effort to integrate AI and data across all domains, including space and cyber.

To support these contracts, Palantir has increased hiring of cleared engineers and opened a new classified development facility near Washington, D.C., specifically to accelerate AIP deployment across national security programs.

What to Expect From PLTR Stock Before Earnings

Investors should expect volatility in Palantir stock before earnings. The stock is simply too expensive for many investors. If PLTR stock were trading at 50x earnings, it would be trading at a generous premium to other technology stocks.

As of July 28, Palantir is trading at a multiple of more than 10 times that number.

That means investors are expecting enormous growth, unlike anything that many investors have seen. It also means that in the best-case scenario, it will take time, likely measured in years, for Palantir to “justify” its valuation.

However, that’s more of a distinction for traders than long-term investors. If you can hold the stock for the next 10 years, you’re not likely to be disappointed. But for now, expect the volatility to continue.

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