Vertex Gears Up to Report Q2 Earnings: Is a Beat in the Cards?

We expect Vertex Pharmaceuticals VRTX to surpass expectations when it reports its second-quarter 2025 results on Aug. 4, after market close.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for the to-be-reported quarter’s revenues is pegged at $2.89 billion, while the same for earnings is $4.24 per share.

Year to date, shares of Vertex have rallied 14.4% compared with the industry’s increase of 1.8%.

Let’s see how things might have shaped up before the announcement.

Factors Shaping VRTX's Upcoming Results

Vertex’s cystic franchise (“CF”) sales have been growing, driven by higher sales of its blockbuster CF medicine, Trikafta/Kaftrio (Trikafta’s brand name in Europe), in younger age groups.

The company’s revenues in the to-be-reported quarter are likely to have been driven by strong demand for Trikafta/Kaftrio in the United States. However, in the last reported quarter, revenues from international markets were negatively impacted by the availability of an illegal copy product in Russia. It remains to be seen whether this continued in the to-be-reported quarter or not.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate and our model estimate for Trikafta/Kaftrio sales are currently pegged at $2.56 billion and $2.50 billion, respectively.

However, higher Trikafta/Kaftrio sales are likely to have caused sales erosion of VRTX’s other CF drugs — Symdeko (marketed as Symkevi in Europe), Orkambi and Kalydeco.

While CF remains the primary area of focus, Vertex has experienced rapid success with its non-CF pipeline candidates over the past year.

Vertex and partner CRISPR Therapeutics’ CRSP one-shot gene therapy, Casgevy, was approved in late 2023/early 2024 for two blood disorders — sickle cell disease and transfusion-dependent beta-thalassemia.

Vertex leads the global development and commercialization of Casgevy under the terms of the 2021 agreement, with support from CRISPR Therapeutics.

Vertex recorded $14.2 million in sales from Casgevy in the first quarter of 2025. Casgevy sales surged 77.5% on a sequential basis in the last reported quarter. Sales of Casgevy are expected to have been higher in the second quarter of 2025. The company has been securing reimbursement and access to Casgevy globally.

VRTX’s New Products Sales May Improve

Vertex’s fifth CF medicine, Alyftrek (vanza triple), was approved by the FDA in December 2024 for treating people with CF aged six years and older. Earlier this month, the European Commission approved Alyftrek for a similar indication.

Alyftrek generated sales worth $53.9 million in the first quarter of 2025. On the first-quarter earnings call, management stated that it is seeing a steady uptake from all patient groups who are eligible for treatment with Alyftrek, including treatment-naive patients, patients who had discontinued previous CFTR modulator treatment, and those switching from Trikafta. However, the switch from Trikafta to Alyftrek was slower than expected. An update on the same is expected on the second-quarter earnings call.

VRTX’s novel non-opioid pain medicine Journavx (suzetrigine) was approved by the FDA in January 2025. Sales of the medicine were insignificant in the last reported quarter. On the first-quarter earnings call, the company had said that Journavx sales are expected to pick up in the second half of the year as the product’s uptake accelerates through patient assistance and supply/stocking initiatives in the first half. Considering this, we do not expect any significant sequential improvement in Journavx’s sales in the second quarter.

Investors will be keen to get more updates related to the commercial launch progress of Alyftrek, Journavx and Casgevy on the second-quarter earnings call.

Updates related to Vertex’s other pipeline candidates, which are in mid- to late-stage studies for treating other diseases like APOL1-mediated kidney diseases, alpha-1 antitrypsin deficiency and cell therapy for type 1 diabetes, are also expected on the upcoming earnings call.

VRTX's Earnings Surprise History

Vertex’s earnings performance has been dismal over the trailing four quarters. The company beat earnings estimates in one of the last four reported quarters while missing the same on the remaining three occasions, delivering a negative earnings surprise of 2.39%, on average. In the last reported quarter, the company missed earnings estimates by 3.79%.

Vertex Pharmaceuticals Incorporated Price and EPS Surprise

Vertex Pharmaceuticals Incorporated price-eps-surprise | Vertex Pharmaceuticals Incorporated Quote

What Our Model Predicts for VRTX

Our proven model predicts an earnings beat for Vertex this time around. The combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) increases the odds of an earnings beat. This is the case here, as you will see below.

VRTX’s Earnings ESP: Vertex’s Earnings ESP is +1.82% as the Most Accurate Estimate currently stands at $4.32, higher than the Zacks Consensus Estimate, which is pegged at $4.24. You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they're reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.

VRTX’s Zacks Rank: Vertex currently carries a Zacks Rank #3. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.

Other Stocks With the Favorable Combination

Here are a few stocks worth considering from the healthcare space, as our model shows that these also have the right combination of elements to beat on earnings this reporting cycle.

CorMedix CRMD has an Earnings ESP of +20.00% and a Zacks Rank #1 at present.

Shares of CRMD have surged 47.9% year to date. CorMedix beat on earnings in each of the trailing four quarters, delivering an average surprise of 25.82%.

Exact Sciences EXAS has an Earnings ESP of +475.00% and a Zacks Rank #2 at present.

Shares of EXAS have declined 14.5% year to date. EXAS beat on earnings in three of the trailing four quarters and missed in the other one, delivering an average surprise of 48.79%. Exact Sciences is scheduled to report second-quarter results on Aug. 6, after market close.

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This article originally published on Zacks Investment Research (zacks.com).

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